Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.549112931396513,
"p_shipped": 0.4911703129025784,
"model_mu": 5.413230245521094,
"market_p": 0.4870466321243523,
"divergence": 0.062066299272160674,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team walking more than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2583,
"contribution": 0.07448,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_bb30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.2529,
"contribution": 0.07293,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"roof_open",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2205,
"contribution": 0.06358,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_days_rest_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 5.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.1914,
"contribution": 0.05521,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"h_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire leans under",
"share": 0.077,
"contribution": -0.0222,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T17:00:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.48748210763768374,
"p_shipped": 0.488441936185325,
"model_mu": 5.605490662087863,
"market_p": 0.48062015503875977,
"divergence": 0.0068619525989239705,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T17:00:49Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.2998,
"contribution": -0.09039,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"a_backup_catcher",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team walking more than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2408,
"contribution": 0.07258,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_bb30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.2027,
"contribution": 0.06109,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"roof_open",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 5.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.1831,
"contribution": 0.05521,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"h_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire leans under",
"share": 0.0736,
"contribution": -0.0222,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5658836704648197,
"p_shipped": 0.5066642301377119,
"model_mu": 8.70553302098689,
"market_p": 0.5142118863049095,
"divergence": 0.05167178415991014,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.2645,
"contribution": 0.17223,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No pitch-tracking data for the away starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1997,
"contribution": 0.13001,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_sp_pitch_miss",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.1841,
"contribution": -0.1199,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 5.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.1557,
"contribution": 0.10138,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"h_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team walking more than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1128,
"contribution": 0.07346,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_bb30",
"a_platoon_miss",
"h_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
"share": 0.0831,
"contribution": -0.05412,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_k_dev_sd"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T17:00:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5430903907788194,
"p_shipped": 0.5076914457052492,
"model_mu": 9.145649309074154,
"market_p": 0.5282051282051282,
"divergence": 0.01488526257369116,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T17:00:49Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.2538,
"contribution": 0.16374,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over",
"share": 0.2159,
"contribution": 0.13927,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.1872,
"contribution": -0.12079,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_framing_miss",
"a_backup_catcher"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.1859,
"contribution": -0.1199,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 5.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.1572,
"contribution": 0.10138,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"h_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
}
]
}
]