SPOTTER.
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
Game View
first pitch 7:40 PM CDT

Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres

Sun 9/20 · 7:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 47% under · market 47%
TOTAL
no lean
model 49% over · market 49%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 0-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
The home team allowing 3.6 runs a game, last 30 — below league average28%
Starting pitchers leans over — mostly the home teamagainst the under26%
The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games9%
Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year — more called strikes8%
Park & environment leans overagainst the under1%
WHAT WE COULDN'T SEEpriced into our number — not evidence about this game
No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher — graded at league averageagainst the under28%
Market: First-5-innings Under 4.0 at +104 (pinnacle, quoted 6:30 PM CDT) · the full picture prices it +111 · model expects ~4.8 runs · divergence 0 points — band none.
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
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  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "market_p": 0.5219638242894057,
  "divergence": 0.016497254056177857,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.2783,
    "contribution": 0.07837,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 3.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
    "share": 0.2722,
    "contribution": -0.07664,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2558,
    "contribution": 0.07204,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
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     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.0806,
    "contribution": -0.02269,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
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    "share": 0.0665,
    "contribution": 0.01872,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0467,
    "contribution": 0.01315,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T23:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T23:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "battery",
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    "share": 0.2829,
    "contribution": 0.07837,
    "kind": "gap",
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    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
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    "share": 0.2767,
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    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
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     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
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    "share": 0.2601,
    "contribution": 0.07204,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
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    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0852,
    "contribution": -0.02359,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
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     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
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    "share": 0.0819,
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    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
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     "ump_acc_rel",
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    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
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    "share": 0.0132,
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    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
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  "rung": "l1",
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  "divergence": 0.03483382640295346,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
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  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
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  "factors": [
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    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.3218,
    "contribution": 0.1881,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
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    ]
   },
   {
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    "share": 0.2905,
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    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
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    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1861,
    "contribution": 0.10879,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1484,
    "contribution": -0.08672,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
    "share": 0.0531,
    "contribution": -0.03105,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_err30",
     "a_err30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T23:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "anchor_line": 7.5,
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  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T23:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
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  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
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    "share": 0.3141,
    "contribution": 0.1881,
    "kind": "driver",
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     "a_sp_inn1_whiff",
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    ]
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   {
    "family": "strength",
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    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
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   {
    "family": "situational",
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    "share": 0.1817,
    "contribution": 0.10879,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
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    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
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     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_off_hr30"
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   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
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    "features": [
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_err30",
     "a_err30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]