Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4964499184143248,
"p_shipped": 0.47655321120905764,
"model_mu": 5.230895171392934,
"market_p": 0.47680412371134023,
"divergence": 0.019645794702984554,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter walks 12.6% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.2617,
"contribution": -0.14587,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "89\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.2492,
"contribution": 0.13894,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"day_game",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2004,
"contribution": 0.11168,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1568,
"contribution": 0.08743,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.2 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1319,
"contribution": -0.07351,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_elo",
"h_elo"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T19:00:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5019320099922102,
"p_shipped": 0.47293688773158676,
"model_mu": 6.070309683011154,
"market_p": 0.4742268041237113,
"divergence": 0.027705205868498894,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T19:00:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "99\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.2819,
"contribution": 0.16332,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"day_game",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2737,
"contribution": 0.15858,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_platoon_share",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter walks 12.6% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.2518,
"contribution": -0.14587,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.2 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1269,
"contribution": -0.07351,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_elo",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans over",
"share": 0.0657,
"contribution": 0.03808,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"h_backup_catcher",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5267308967931711,
"p_shipped": 0.507029892763707,
"model_mu": 8.013382794197074,
"market_p": 0.5192802056555269,
"divergence": 0.007450691137644183,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "89\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.3044,
"contribution": 0.2418,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.2334,
"contribution": 0.18542,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_k_pct30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter walks 12.6% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1992,
"contribution": -0.1582,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"a_sp_inn1_whiff",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.1337,
"contribution": -0.10617,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.2 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1293,
"contribution": -0.10274,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_elo",
"a_rs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-09T19:00:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5148911257604503,
"p_shipped": 0.4981233460845462,
"model_mu": 9.718774025469111,
"market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
"divergence": -0.0018183858076731285,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T19:00:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "99\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.3286,
"contribution": 0.27442,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.222,
"contribution": 0.18542,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_k_pct30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter walks 12.6% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.1894,
"contribution": -0.1582,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"a_sp_inn1_whiff",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.1329,
"contribution": -0.11101,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_framing_miss",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.1271,
"contribution": -0.10617,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
}
]
}
]