New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres

Sat 9/5 · 6:15 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.5

B cards like this have won 49% over · market 47%

TOTAL

no lean

model 51% under · market 49%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 9-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Offense profile leans over — mostly the home team42%

Team strength & form leans over — mostly the away team25%

Behind the plate leans over — mostly the home team23%

The away starter recently back from injury6%

Day gameagainst the over5%

Market: First-5-innings Over 4.5 at +107 (pinnacle, quoted 5:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~5.3 runs · divergence 9 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 49.2% of 620 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -2.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

Frozen no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade B. · new at this pass — the morning pass had no lean.

anchor First-5 Over 4.5 +107 → closed First-5 Over 4.0 -123 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Extra innings yesterdayCatcher rest spotVeteran rest spotDay game after a night gameTime-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)Low-scoring umpireHigh-strikeout umpire

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5678813215831039,
  "p_shipped": 0.5351107076535567,
  "model_mu": 4.336906803913012,
  "market_p": 0.5295629820051414,
  "divergence": 0.03831833957796249,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.3452,
    "contribution": 0.08306,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2734,
    "contribution": 0.06579,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2511,
    "contribution": 0.06041,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.0671,
    "contribution": -0.01614,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter recently back from injury",
    "share": 0.0632,
    "contribution": 0.0152,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_il_return",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T22:00:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5523203951656254,
  "p_shipped": 0.4685871698763051,
  "model_mu": 5.3497670739720125,
  "market_p": 0.46649484536082475,
  "divergence": 0.08582554980480062,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T22:00:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.4246,
    "contribution": 0.1134,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_platoon_share"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2463,
    "contribution": 0.06579,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2262,
    "contribution": 0.06041,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter recently back from injury",
    "share": 0.0569,
    "contribution": 0.0152,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_il_return",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.0459,
    "contribution": -0.01227,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.47003596549129334,
  "p_shipped": 0.5041143325941125,
  "model_mu": 7.064259091420877,
  "market_p": 0.5141388174807198,
  "divergence": -0.04410285198942643,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Both starters walk 11.3% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.3774,
    "contribution": -0.20579,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.2794,
    "contribution": 0.15237,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "temp_out",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1771,
    "contribution": -0.09657,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_bb30",
     "a_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.105,
    "contribution": -0.05727,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked extra innings yesterday",
    "share": 0.0611,
    "contribution": -0.03333,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_yday_extras",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T22:00:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4765113494573046,
  "p_shipped": 0.49366899963316146,
  "model_mu": 8.069364855458428,
  "market_p": 0.5089974293059126,
  "divergence": -0.03248607984860802,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T22:00:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Both starters walk 11.3% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.391,
    "contribution": -0.20579,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.2961,
    "contribution": 0.15585,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "temp_out",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1407,
    "contribution": -0.07408,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_bb30",
     "a_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1088,
    "contribution": -0.05727,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked extra innings yesterday",
    "share": 0.0633,
    "contribution": -0.03333,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_yday_extras",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]