Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Sat 9/19 · 5:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS

no lean

model 52% over · market 53%

TOTAL

no lean

model 53% under · market 51%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 3-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The home starter down 0.9 mph in his last start25%

Park & environment leans over25%

The home team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 — below league averageagainst the over22%

Offense profile leans over — mostly the away team8%

Umpire has given hitters the borderline call more than the league this past year2%

WHAT WE COULDN'T SEEpriced into our number — not evidence about this game

No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher — graded at league average17%

Market: First-5-innings Over 4.0 at -120 (pinnacle, quoted 4:30 PM CDT) · the full picture prices it -108 · model expects ~4.7 runs · divergence 3 points — band none.

FIRST 5Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade no lean.

TOTALFrozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade no lean.

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Deep into a road trip (game 7+)Heavily used bullpen

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5247902544140827,
  "p_shipped": 0.4568123363387953,
  "model_mu": 4.270889229578794,
  "market_p": 0.4742268041237113,
  "divergence": 0.05056345029037135,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter down 0.9 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.2901,
    "contribution": 0.07354,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
    "share": 0.2526,
    "contribution": -0.06403,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.2031,
    "contribution": 0.05149,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1951,
    "contribution": 0.04946,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "a_cs30",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0351,
    "contribution": 0.00889,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire has given hitters the borderline call more than the league this past year",
    "share": 0.0239,
    "contribution": 0.00607,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T21:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5579709724565106,
  "p_shipped": 0.5181728960969195,
  "model_mu": 4.735442660540106,
  "market_p": 0.5295629820051414,
  "divergence": 0.028407990451369214,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T21:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter down 0.9 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.2538,
    "contribution": 0.07354,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.2495,
    "contribution": 0.07229,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
    "share": 0.2209,
    "contribution": -0.06403,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.1707,
    "contribution": 0.04946,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "a_cs30",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0842,
    "contribution": 0.0244,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire has given hitters the borderline call more than the league this past year",
    "share": 0.0209,
    "contribution": 0.00607,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4482192213387705,
  "p_shipped": 0.49038302694405306,
  "model_mu": 7.308750301804038,
  "market_p": 0.5154639175257731,
  "divergence": -0.06724469618700263,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "The away team deep into a long road trip",
    "share": 0.3436,
    "contribution": -0.10968,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_trip7"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.199,
    "contribution": -0.06351,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for both teams \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1288,
    "contribution": 0.04112,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_framing_miss",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.1145,
    "contribution": 0.03655,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
    "share": 0.1072,
    "contribution": -0.03421,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1068,
    "contribution": -0.03409,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T21:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.45509553700005584,
  "p_shipped": 0.4653432461080457,
  "model_mu": 8.335589131882555,
  "market_p": 0.4858611825192801,
  "divergence": -0.030765645519224283,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T21:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "The away team deep into a long road trip",
    "share": 0.3436,
    "contribution": -0.10968,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_trip7"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.199,
    "contribution": -0.06351,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for either catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.1288,
    "contribution": 0.04112,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_framing_miss",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.1145,
    "contribution": 0.03655,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
    "share": 0.1072,
    "contribution": -0.03421,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1068,
    "contribution": -0.03409,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]