Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Thu 9/17 · 11:35 AM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 4.5

B cards like this have won 49% under · market 48%

TOTAL · UNDER 9.0 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% under · market 53%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 9-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Team strength & form leans under — mostly the away team34%

Starting pitchers leans under — mostly the away team31%

Park & environment leans overagainst the under19%

Offense profile leans over — mostly the home teamagainst the under9%

Backup catcher starting8%

Market: First-5-innings Under 4.5 at +103 (pinnacle, quoted 10:30 AM CDT) · model expects ~4.6 runs · divergence 9 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 49.2% of 620 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -2.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

FIRST 5Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade B. · new at this pass — the morning pass had no lean.

TOTALFrozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Under 4.5 +103 → closed -103 · our way

TOTALanchor Under 9.0 runs -119 → closed -118 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Catcher rest spotVeteran rest spotDay game after a night gameGetaway day (day game, then travel)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.41852237253059144,
  "p_shipped": 0.45793517198848627,
  "model_mu": 4.273669985908074,
  "market_p": 0.47028423772609823,
  "divergence": -0.051761865195506795,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.3625,
    "contribution": -0.19687,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.3297,
    "contribution": -0.1791,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_opener"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.226,
    "contribution": 0.12275,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0412,
    "contribution": 0.02238,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.0406,
    "contribution": 0.02206,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_width_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-17T15:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4346563884040693,
  "p_shipped": 0.5136653258635787,
  "model_mu": 4.648863625650098,
  "market_p": 0.5231958762886597,
  "divergence": -0.08853948788459043,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T15:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.3372,
    "contribution": -0.19687,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.3068,
    "contribution": -0.1791,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_opener"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.1881,
    "contribution": 0.1098,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0903,
    "contribution": 0.05272,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_platoon_share"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.0776,
    "contribution": -0.04531,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "a_backup_catcher",
     "h_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.41205946044644737,
  "p_shipped": 0.4830892923565078,
  "model_mu": 7.909713513527215,
  "market_p": 0.4857881136950904,
  "divergence": -0.07372865324864303,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 9.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.3138,
    "contribution": -0.25388,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.2656,
    "contribution": -0.21488,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.2438,
    "contribution": 0.19722,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.1139,
    "contribution": 0.09217,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0629,
    "contribution": -0.05091,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_bb30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-17T15:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.40673930567537264,
  "p_shipped": 0.4673699532662731,
  "model_mu": 8.800553809756364,
  "market_p": 0.4717948717948718,
  "divergence": -0.06505556611949914,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 9.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T15:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.3155,
    "contribution": -0.25388,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.267,
    "contribution": -0.21488,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.2303,
    "contribution": 0.18533,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.1145,
    "contribution": 0.09217,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.0726,
    "contribution": -0.05843,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "a_backup_catcher",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]