Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Sat 9/5 · 5:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · UNDER 7.5 RUNS

B cards like this have won 52% under · market 49% · stake 0.5u

FIRST 5 INNINGS

no lean

model 52% under · market 50%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 12-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games40%

Team strength & form leans over — mostly the away teamagainst the under19%

Starting pitchers leans under — mostly the away team18%

The away team throws out base stealers12%

Bullpen leans under10%

Market: Under 7.5 runs at -103 (pinnacle, quoted 4:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~7.1 runs · divergence 12 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 52.2% of 1,393 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.2 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 0.5u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade no lean.

TOTALFrozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

anchor Under 7.5 runs -103 → closed -105 · our way

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)Starter recently back from injury

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

SERIES_UNDER The last game in this series finished 8 runs under its closing total — 1 run against a total of 9. In 2021–25, the next game went under 54.6% of the time · personal rule, not graded

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.46915525303543143,
  "p_shipped": 0.5058230814361717,
  "model_mu": 3.589717977735914,
  "market_p": 0.5193798449612403,
  "divergence": -0.050224591925808915,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2567,
    "contribution": -0.15367,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2302,
    "contribution": -0.13784,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_il_return",
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.2054,
    "contribution": 0.123,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.1774,
    "contribution": -0.10619,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1303,
    "contribution": 0.07798,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T21:30:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4687101787664989,
  "p_shipped": 0.48157197104678984,
  "model_mu": 4.132307028783993,
  "market_p": 0.4987080103359174,
  "divergence": -0.029997831569418487,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T21:30:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2547,
    "contribution": -0.13784,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_il_return",
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.2061,
    "contribution": 0.11153,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1989,
    "contribution": -0.10764,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.1962,
    "contribution": -0.10619,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1441,
    "contribution": 0.07798,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.401223920952599,
  "p_shipped": 0.5036244065529287,
  "model_mu": 6.254430411428571,
  "market_p": 0.5115681233933163,
  "divergence": -0.11034420244071724,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.4455,
    "contribution": -0.41315,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1953,
    "contribution": 0.18106,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1797,
    "contribution": -0.16663,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under",
    "share": 0.1067,
    "contribution": -0.09891,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0729,
    "contribution": 0.06758,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T21:30:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.38969483511222397,
  "p_shipped": 0.493179780407691,
  "model_mu": 7.141822031679501,
  "market_p": 0.5064267352185091,
  "divergence": -0.11673190010628515,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T21:30:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.4049,
    "contribution": -0.38349,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1912,
    "contribution": 0.18106,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1759,
    "contribution": -0.16663,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The away team throws out base stealers",
    "share": 0.1235,
    "contribution": -0.117,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_cs30",
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_backup_catcher"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under",
    "share": 0.1044,
    "contribution": -0.09891,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]