Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Sun 9/6 · 12:35 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · UNDER 7.0 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% under · market 49%

FIRST 5 INNINGS

no lean

model 49% under · market 48%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 8-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games42%

Team strength & form leans over — mostly the away teamagainst the under17%

Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team — day game, then travel16%

Walk-prone umpire zoneagainst the under13%

Day gameagainst the under12%

Market: Under 7.0 runs at +100 (pinnacle, quoted 11:30 AM CDT) · model expects ~7.1 runs · divergence 8 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 52.2% of 2,317 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

FIRST 5Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade no lean.

TOTALFrozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.

anchor Under 7.0 runs +100 → closed -101 · our way

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Catcher rest spotDay game after a night gameGetaway day (day game, then travel)Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.47201692509038956,
  "p_shipped": 0.5242201941678841,
  "model_mu": 3.462827478775173,
  "market_p": 0.5335051546391752,
  "divergence": -0.06148822954878569,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 3.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter strikes out 28% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.3811,
    "contribution": -0.16816,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.3286,
    "contribution": -0.145,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1298,
    "contribution": 0.05726,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.0905,
    "contribution": -0.03992,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.07,
    "contribution": 0.0309,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_width_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T16:30:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4705388059705582,
  "p_shipped": 0.5107670430968172,
  "model_mu": 3.971035672558791,
  "market_p": 0.518041237113402,
  "divergence": -0.047502431142843804,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 3.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T16:30:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter strikes out 28% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.3845,
    "contribution": -0.16816,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.3379,
    "contribution": -0.14777,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1309,
    "contribution": 0.05726,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.076,
    "contribution": -0.03325,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.0707,
    "contribution": 0.0309,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_width_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4275408339909846,
  "p_shipped": 0.4776766678965594,
  "model_mu": 6.677669420257689,
  "market_p": 0.48071979434447304,
  "divergence": -0.05317896035348846,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.4285,
    "contribution": -0.3884,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1707,
    "contribution": 0.15474,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.1607,
    "contribution": -0.1457,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.1335,
    "contribution": 0.12101,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.1065,
    "contribution": 0.09658,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T16:30:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.43663807518580866,
  "p_shipped": 0.4870285324259805,
  "model_mu": 7.14526301137067,
  "market_p": 0.5141388174807198,
  "divergence": -0.0775007422949111,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 7.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T16:30:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.4213,
    "contribution": -0.38353,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.17,
    "contribution": 0.15474,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.16,
    "contribution": -0.1457,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.1329,
    "contribution": 0.12101,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.1158,
    "contribution": 0.10543,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]