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first pitch 5:40 PM CDT
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San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Tue 9/1 · 5:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.0
A
A cards like this have won 55% over · market 47% · stake 1u
TOTAL
no lean
model 49% over · market 50%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 18-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
86°F — heat carries the ball41%
Hitter-friendly umpire zone28%
Offense profile leans under — mostly the away teamagainst the over8%
Starting pitchers leans over — mostly the away team6%
Team strength & form leans over — mostly the away team5%
WHAT WE COULDN'T SEEpriced into our number — not evidence about this game
No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher — graded at league average12%
Market: First-5-innings Over 4.0 at +107 (pinnacle, quoted 4:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~5.3 runs · divergence 18 points — band A. A-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. A cards in this market have won 54.6% of 414 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +3.7 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 1u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.
Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade A. · new at this pass — the morning pass had no lean.
anchor First-5 Over 4.0 +107 → closed First-5 Over 3.5 -123 · away
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5491876309073547,
  "p_shipped": 0.46151370843503114,
  "model_mu": 4.247741913231471,
  "market_p": 0.4742268041237113,
  "divergence": 0.07496082678364335,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "88\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.3683,
    "contribution": 0.26373,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No umpire tendency history \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.352,
    "contribution": -0.25203,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_gate_miss",
     "ump_zone_miss",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1068,
    "contribution": 0.07648,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0688,
    "contribution": -0.04928,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0569,
    "contribution": 0.04075,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0472,
    "contribution": 0.03381,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T21:30:25Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.6501836984392771,
  "p_shipped": 0.4670481007645482,
  "model_mu": 5.330301061854139,
  "market_p": 0.46649484536082475,
  "divergence": 0.1836888530784524,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T21:30:25Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "86\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.4056,
    "contribution": 0.25883,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Hitter-friendly umpire zone",
    "share": 0.2776,
    "contribution": 0.17715,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_k_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.1199,
    "contribution": 0.07648,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0801,
    "contribution": -0.0511,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0639,
    "contribution": 0.04075,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.053,
    "contribution": 0.03381,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.4970139407768043,
  "p_shipped": 0.503522465663864,
  "model_mu": 7.383349656914153,
  "market_p": 0.5115681233933163,
  "divergence": -0.01455418261651198,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.374,
    "contribution": -0.24322,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "88\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2331,
    "contribution": 0.15161,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1186,
    "contribution": 0.07716,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.098,
    "contribution": -0.06373,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2",
     "a_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.0913,
    "contribution": -0.05936,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_zone_miss",
     "ump_gate_miss",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0849,
    "contribution": 0.05524,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T21:30:25Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5243262961954802,
  "p_shipped": 0.4901371599806003,
  "model_mu": 8.422497012287781,
  "market_p": 0.5,
  "divergence": 0.024326296195480213,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T21:30:25Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.4115,
    "contribution": -0.23835,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "86\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.25,
    "contribution": 0.14482,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1332,
    "contribution": 0.07716,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.11,
    "contribution": -0.06373,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2",
     "a_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0954,
    "contribution": 0.05524,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]