Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4584717215968267,
"p_shipped": 0.4877199188953511,
"model_mu": 3.990037714053349,
"market_p": 0.4793814432989691,
"divergence": -0.020909721702142392,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2952,
"contribution": 0.09823,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.2597,
"contribution": -0.0864,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"h_elo",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.202,
"contribution": -0.0672,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1637,
"contribution": -0.05448,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 433 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.0794,
"contribution": -0.02641,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T16:30:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.45448844235145697,
"p_shipped": 0.4904578251305852,
"model_mu": 4.705173096503864,
"market_p": 0.48062015503875977,
"divergence": -0.0261317126873028,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T16:30:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2863,
"contribution": 0.11202,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.2861,
"contribution": -0.11192,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_backup_catcher",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.2208,
"contribution": -0.0864,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"h_elo",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1393,
"contribution": -0.05448,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 433 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.0675,
"contribution": -0.02641,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.44129038027118944,
"p_shipped": 0.5065625647233233,
"model_mu": 7.216393474120773,
"market_p": 0.5038560411311055,
"divergence": -0.06256566085991605,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.4065,
"contribution": -0.19743,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.2646,
"contribution": 0.12852,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: day game after a night game for the away team",
"share": 0.1535,
"contribution": -0.07455,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_dan"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0922,
"contribution": -0.04476,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under",
"share": 0.0831,
"contribution": -0.04038,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T16:30:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4439475143480739,
"p_shipped": 0.5007362262628378,
"model_mu": 8.089495286319279,
"market_p": 0.5064267352185091,
"divergence": -0.062479220870435226,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T16:30:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.3986,
"contribution": -0.19743,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.279,
"contribution": 0.13818,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: day game after a night game for the away team",
"share": 0.1505,
"contribution": -0.07455,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_dan"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0904,
"contribution": -0.04476,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under",
"share": 0.0815,
"contribution": -0.04038,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
}
]
}
]