Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.42931704341006816,
"p_shipped": 0.48545430215201435,
"model_mu": 3.971749446691096,
"market_p": 0.47680412371134023,
"divergence": -0.04748708030127208,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": null,
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter up 1.3 mph in his last start",
"share": 0.4566,
"contribution": -0.25145,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~9 mph net",
"share": 0.3037,
"contribution": -0.16726,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"day_game",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1067,
"contribution": 0.05875,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_elo",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.0787,
"contribution": 0.04335,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0542,
"contribution": 0.02986,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-19T19:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.45691027960336655,
"p_shipped": 0.49141040479911113,
"model_mu": 4.784757418927919,
"market_p": 0.48195876288659806,
"divergence": -0.025048483283231504,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T19:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": null,
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter up 1.3 mph in his last start",
"share": 0.5371,
"contribution": -0.25145,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1497,
"contribution": -0.07006,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1255,
"contribution": 0.05875,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_elo",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0951,
"contribution": 0.04451,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.0926,
"contribution": 0.04335,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.44938270040366496,
"p_shipped": 0.48836271433976963,
"model_mu": 7.209023532437534,
"market_p": 0.48205128205128206,
"divergence": -0.0326685816476171,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": null,
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter up 1.3 mph in his last start",
"share": 0.3723,
"contribution": -0.18171,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: day game after a night game for the away team",
"share": 0.3438,
"contribution": -0.1678,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_dan"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1363,
"contribution": 0.06651,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_elo",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.0776,
"contribution": 0.03786,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"wind_out_comp",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
"share": 0.0701,
"contribution": -0.03421,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-19T19:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4661408907065073,
"p_shipped": 0.4826772489560404,
"model_mu": 8.33457115106287,
"market_p": 0.4961439588688946,
"divergence": -0.030003068162387292,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T19:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": null,
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter up 1.3 mph in his last start",
"share": 0.3354,
"contribution": -0.18171,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: day game after a night game for the away team",
"share": 0.3098,
"contribution": -0.1678,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_dan"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1662,
"contribution": 0.09005,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1228,
"contribution": 0.06651,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_elo",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0658,
"contribution": 0.03565,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
}
]
}
]