Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets

Fri 9/18 · 6:15 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: projected

FIRST 5 INNINGS

no lean

model 51% under · market 51%

TOTAL

no lean

model 48% under · market 50%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 1-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The home starter up 1.5 mph in his last start55%

The away team allowing 3.6 runs a game, last 30 — below league average. Priced in, and it went too faragainst the under16%

The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitchesagainst the under13%

The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 gamesagainst the under10%

Strike-throwing umpire zone6%

Market: First-5-innings Under 4.5 at -118 (williamhill_us, quoted 8:15 AM CDT) · the full picture prices it -104 · model expects ~4.3 runs · divergence 1 point — band none.

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Deep into a road trip (game 7+)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. Umpire not yet confirmed. Lineups not posted at grade time. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

SERIES_UNDER The last game in this series finished 5 runs under its closing total — 3 runs against a total of 8. In 2021–25, the next game went under 54.6% of the time · personal rule, not graded

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4804738384856632,
  "p_shipped": 0.4891898491821031,
  "model_mu": 4.298056136432712,
  "market_p": 0.48941798941798953,
  "divergence": -0.008944150932326311,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "williamhill_us",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter up 1.5 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.553,
    "contribution": -0.15832,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "h_sp_tto_decay"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.1561,
    "contribution": 0.04469,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.1277,
    "contribution": 0.03656,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.104,
    "contribution": 0.02978,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
    "share": 0.0592,
    "contribution": -0.01695,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4672645544124254,
  "p_shipped": 0.5170860948650674,
  "model_mu": 7.643475071146586,
  "market_p": 0.5,
  "divergence": -0.032735445587574574,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "onexbet",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.2778,
    "contribution": 0.06657,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter up 1.5 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.2157,
    "contribution": -0.05169,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "The away team deep into a long road trip",
    "share": 0.2008,
    "contribution": -0.0481,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_trip7"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
    "share": 0.1629,
    "contribution": -0.03902,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
    "share": 0.1428,
    "contribution": -0.03421,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]