Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.45223324233940987,
"p_shipped": 0.48392170395124984,
"model_mu": 3.9641987908284615,
"market_p": 0.5012919896640827,
"divergence": -0.04905874732467286,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 467 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.4059,
"contribution": -0.19898,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2627,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2059,
"contribution": 0.10096,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.1234,
"contribution": 0.06051,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0019,
"contribution": 0.00091,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0002,
"contribution": -9e-05,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"h_ra30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T22:00:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.48704893028425383,
"p_shipped": 0.46933391525937335,
"model_mu": 4.835361077229265,
"market_p": 0.48062015503875977,
"divergence": 0.006428775245494067,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T22:00:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 467 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.4687,
"contribution": -0.19898,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.2378,
"contribution": 0.10096,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 80\u00b0F",
"share": 0.1543,
"contribution": 0.0655,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0777,
"contribution": 0.03299,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_platoon_share"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.0613,
"contribution": -0.02602,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0002,
"contribution": -9e-05,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"h_ra30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5085025542618052,
"p_shipped": 0.48880018563745986,
"model_mu": 7.548777642003768,
"market_p": 0.5038560411311055,
"divergence": 0.004646513130699748,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.4404,
"contribution": 0.22859,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_b2b",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1518,
"contribution": -0.07877,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1329,
"contribution": -0.069,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1144,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.081,
"contribution": 0.04202,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0797,
"contribution": -0.04136,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_unearned30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T22:00:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5453022964128079,
"p_shipped": 0.4699837071379473,
"model_mu": 8.684649379524558,
"market_p": 0.48711340206185555,
"divergence": 0.05818889435095237,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T22:00:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.5022,
"contribution": 0.22859,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_b2b",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1731,
"contribution": -0.07877,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.1277,
"contribution": 0.05812,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.1021,
"contribution": 0.04645,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0949,
"contribution": -0.04321,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_platoon_share"
]
}
]
}
]