SPOTTER.
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
Game View
first pitch 6:10 PM CDT

San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets

Fri 9/4 · 6:10 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
TOTAL · OVER 8.0 RUNS
C
C cards like this have won 52% over · market 49%
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 47% over · market 48%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 6-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days50%
Schedule spot leans under — mostly the away teamagainst the over17%
Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most13%
Park & environment leans over10%
The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 gamesagainst the over9%
Market: Over 8.0 runs at -101 (pinnacle, quoted 5:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~8.7 runs · divergence 6 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 52.2% of 2,317 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.
FIRST 5Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade no lean.
TOTALFrozen no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade C.
anchor Over 8.0 runs -101 → closed +104 · away
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)Heavily used bullpen
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.45223324233940987,
  "p_shipped": 0.48392170395124984,
  "model_mu": 3.9641987908284615,
  "market_p": 0.5012919896640827,
  "divergence": -0.04905874732467286,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 467 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.4059,
    "contribution": -0.19898,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.2627,
    "contribution": -0.12879,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_rel_miss",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.2059,
    "contribution": 0.10096,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.1234,
    "contribution": 0.06051,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0019,
    "contribution": 0.00091,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0002,
    "contribution": -9e-05,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-04T22:00:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.48704893028425383,
  "p_shipped": 0.46933391525937335,
  "model_mu": 4.835361077229265,
  "market_p": 0.48062015503875977,
  "divergence": 0.006428775245494067,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T22:00:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 467 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.4687,
    "contribution": -0.19898,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.2378,
    "contribution": 0.10096,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Game-time temperature 80\u00b0F",
    "share": 0.1543,
    "contribution": 0.0655,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0777,
    "contribution": 0.03299,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_platoon_share"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.0613,
    "contribution": -0.02602,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0002,
    "contribution": -9e-05,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5085025542618052,
  "p_shipped": 0.48880018563745986,
  "model_mu": 7.548777642003768,
  "market_p": 0.5038560411311055,
  "divergence": 0.004646513130699748,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.4404,
    "contribution": 0.22859,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b",
     "a_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1518,
    "contribution": -0.07877,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2",
     "a_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1329,
    "contribution": -0.069,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1144,
    "contribution": -0.05936,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_zone_miss",
     "ump_gate_miss",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.081,
    "contribution": 0.04202,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "park_f5_asof",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0797,
    "contribution": -0.04136,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-04T22:00:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5453022964128079,
  "p_shipped": 0.4699837071379473,
  "model_mu": 8.684649379524558,
  "market_p": 0.48711340206185555,
  "divergence": 0.05818889435095237,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T22:00:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.5022,
    "contribution": 0.22859,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b",
     "a_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1731,
    "contribution": -0.07877,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2",
     "a_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.1277,
    "contribution": 0.05812,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_width_asof",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.1021,
    "contribution": 0.04645,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "park_f5_asof",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0949,
    "contribution": -0.04321,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_platoon_share"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]