New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins

Tue 9/15 · 6:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.0

B cards like this have won 49% over · market 50%

TOTAL · OVER 7.5 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% over · market 49%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 12-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The away starter recently back from injury41%

Wind blowing out, ~5 mph net24%

The home team allowing 5.3 runs a game, last 30 — above league average19%

Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year — fewer called strikes11%

The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 gamesagainst the over1%

WHAT WE COULDN'T SEEpriced into our number — not evidence about this game

No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher — graded at league averageagainst the over3%

Market: First-5-innings Over 4.0 at -109 (pinnacle, quoted 5:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~5.0 runs · divergence 12 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 49.2% of 620 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -2.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

FIRST 5Frozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

TOTALFrozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Over 4.0 -109 → closed -110 · our way

TOTALanchor Over 7.5 runs -103 → closed -105 · our way

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

September call-up lineupLow-scoring umpire

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5910136531058372,
  "p_shipped": 0.4922592687594048,
  "model_mu": 4.504995289235895,
  "market_p": 0.4793814432989691,
  "divergence": 0.11163220980686811,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter recently back from injury",
    "share": 0.3951,
    "contribution": 0.1875,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_il_return",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~6 mph net",
    "share": 0.2346,
    "contribution": 0.11133,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1877,
    "contribution": 0.08909,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.1095,
    "contribution": 0.05195,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0731,
    "contribution": -0.03469,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T22:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6204017582538055,
  "p_shipped": 0.5156307483442859,
  "model_mu": 4.975074143064299,
  "market_p": 0.5038759689922481,
  "divergence": 0.11652578926155743,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T22:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "push",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter recently back from injury",
    "share": 0.4073,
    "contribution": 0.1875,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_il_return",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~5 mph net",
    "share": 0.2426,
    "contribution": 0.11168,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1935,
    "contribution": 0.08909,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.1128,
    "contribution": 0.05195,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.0325,
    "contribution": -0.01495,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "a_backup_catcher"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0113,
    "contribution": -0.00521,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_platoon_share"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5487174824623219,
  "p_shipped": 0.48402552421427963,
  "model_mu": 7.7967436334870825,
  "market_p": 0.4910025706940874,
  "divergence": 0.057714911768234456,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
    "share": 0.2738,
    "contribution": 0.16857,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2008,
    "contribution": -0.12359,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1976,
    "contribution": -0.12161,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.1741,
    "contribution": 0.1072,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire leans over",
    "share": 0.1537,
    "contribution": 0.09463,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T22:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5533915587520757,
  "p_shipped": 0.4782073896758534,
  "model_mu": 8.43074461925037,
  "market_p": 0.493573264781491,
  "divergence": 0.05981829397058469,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T22:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
    "share": 0.2834,
    "contribution": 0.16857,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2078,
    "contribution": -0.12359,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.1802,
    "contribution": 0.1072,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1694,
    "contribution": -0.10076,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire leans over",
    "share": 0.1591,
    "contribution": 0.09463,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]