Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins

Sun 9/13 · 1:10 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.5

B cards like this have won 49% over · market 47%

TOTAL

no lean

model 50% over · market 52%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 9-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The home starter has thrown 66 pitches over 30 days40%

The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 gamesagainst the over21%

Wind blowing out, ~9 mph net19%

Walk-prone umpire zone11%

The home team allowing 5.1 runs a game, last 30 — above league average10%

Market: First-5-innings Over 4.5 at +108 (pinnacle, quoted 12:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~5.3 runs · divergence 9 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 49.2% of 620 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -2.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

FIRST 5Frozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

TOTALFrozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade no lean.

anchor First-5 Over 4.5 +108 → closed +108 · unchanged

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Getaway day (day game, then travel)Bullpen arms used two straight daysSeptember call-up lineupHigh-scoring umpireStarter recently back from injury

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5815995809867218,
  "p_shipped": 0.47938821721330166,
  "model_mu": 5.087850235451547,
  "market_p": 0.4677002583979328,
  "divergence": 0.11389932258878904,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "No prior major-league start on record for the home starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.5583,
    "contribution": 0.29904,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_days_rest_miss",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitch_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1579,
    "contribution": -0.08457,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.117,
    "contribution": 0.0627,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.0834,
    "contribution": 0.04466,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.0732,
    "contribution": 0.03919,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The away team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
    "share": 0.0103,
    "contribution": -0.0055,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T17:00:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5503915376086267,
  "p_shipped": 0.48099286922949674,
  "model_mu": 5.339625554583772,
  "market_p": 0.4652956298200514,
  "divergence": 0.08509590778857529,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T17:00:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 66 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.3955,
    "contribution": 0.15953,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2101,
    "contribution": -0.08475,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~9 mph net",
    "share": 0.1866,
    "contribution": 0.07529,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "day_game",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.1107,
    "contribution": 0.04466,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.0971,
    "contribution": 0.03919,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5675596660858646,
  "p_shipped": 0.4940217434059485,
  "model_mu": 7.987952053873625,
  "market_p": 0.49095607235142114,
  "divergence": 0.07660359373444348,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1928,
    "contribution": 0.1178,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.1837,
    "contribution": -0.11219,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.1773,
    "contribution": 0.10833,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.1755,
    "contribution": 0.1072,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "No pitch-tracking data for the home starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1389,
    "contribution": 0.08487,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitch_miss",
     "a_sp_prev_pitches",
     "a_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1317,
    "contribution": -0.08048,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_b2b",
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T17:00:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.563671354351883,
  "p_shipped": 0.49905426349126586,
  "model_mu": 8.329437465681956,
  "market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
  "divergence": 0.04696184278375959,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T17:00:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.2209,
    "contribution": 0.1178,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.2169,
    "contribution": 0.11569,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.2103,
    "contribution": -0.11219,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.201,
    "contribution": 0.1072,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1509,
    "contribution": -0.08048,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_b2b",
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]