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first pitch 6:40 PM CDT
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Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins

Tue 9/1 · 6:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
TOTAL · OVER 8.5 RUNS
B
B cards like this have won 52% over · market 50% · stake 0.5u
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 51% over · market 50%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 9-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
Game-time temperature 84°F23%
Recent call-ups in both lineups23%
The home starter exits early — bullpen exposure22%
Light travel this week for the away team19%
The away team allowing 3.9 runs a game, last 30 — below league average. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the over13%
Market: Over 8.5 runs at -108 (pinnacle, quoted 5:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~9.0 runs · divergence 9 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 52.2% of 1,393 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.2 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 0.5u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.
Frozen C at 8:38 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade B. · new at this pass — the morning pass had no lean.
anchor Over 8.5 runs -108 → closed -108 · unchanged
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
none detected for this game
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.510482748305438,
  "p_shipped": 0.5095563653222306,
  "model_mu": 3.9142997854664117,
  "market_p": 0.5,
  "divergence": 0.01048274830543805,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Game-time temperature 84\u00b0F",
    "share": 0.5065,
    "contribution": 0.19607,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter mixed his pitches differently than usual last start",
    "share": 0.3655,
    "contribution": -0.14147,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "h_sp_opener",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.0649,
    "contribution": 0.02514,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_asof",
     "ump_acc_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0607,
    "contribution": -0.02349,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0024,
    "contribution": 0.00094,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T22:30:25Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5144307935080965,
  "p_shipped": 0.5127590033259074,
  "model_mu": 4.585922392233605,
  "market_p": 0.5012919896640827,
  "divergence": 0.01313880384401378,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T22:30:25Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Game-time temperature 84\u00b0F",
    "share": 0.528,
    "contribution": 0.21403,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter mixed his pitches differently than usual last start",
    "share": 0.349,
    "contribution": -0.14147,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "h_sp_opener",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.062,
    "contribution": 0.02514,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_asof",
     "ump_acc_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.058,
    "contribution": -0.02349,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.003,
    "contribution": -0.00121,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5883956591819874,
  "p_shipped": 0.5052520390898682,
  "model_mu": 7.898957476754952,
  "market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
  "divergence": 0.07168614761386405,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.2334,
    "contribution": 0.08733,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter exits early \u2014 bullpen exposure",
    "share": 0.2291,
    "contribution": 0.08574,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_bf_per_start",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_prev_pitches"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Game-time temperature 84\u00b0F",
    "share": 0.2097,
    "contribution": 0.07848,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "alt_kft",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
    "share": 0.1976,
    "contribution": 0.07393,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.9 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
    "share": 0.1301,
    "contribution": 0.0487,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T22:30:25Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5911528583156854,
  "p_shipped": 0.49018851503313793,
  "model_mu": 8.951364554169475,
  "market_p": 0.5038560411311055,
  "divergence": 0.08729681718457993,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T22:30:25Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Game-time temperature 84\u00b0F",
    "share": 0.2287,
    "contribution": 0.08768,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.2278,
    "contribution": 0.08733,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter exits early \u2014 bullpen exposure",
    "share": 0.2236,
    "contribution": 0.08574,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_bf_per_start",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_prev_pitches"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
    "share": 0.1928,
    "contribution": 0.07393,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.9 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
    "share": 0.127,
    "contribution": 0.0487,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]