Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5047708001145232,
"p_shipped": 0.4915809826835448,
"model_mu": 3.650607219288922,
"market_p": 0.5142118863049095,
"divergence": -0.009441086190386305,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.4213,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 18.6% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2176,
"contribution": 0.06654,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
"share": 0.1115,
"contribution": 0.03409,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"wx_miss",
"wind_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 6.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.0893,
"contribution": -0.02731,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_elo",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0857,
"contribution": 0.02619,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0747,
"contribution": -0.02282,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T22:30:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5157717780718349,
"p_shipped": 0.4737686827650779,
"model_mu": 4.9946390385893205,
"market_p": 0.4832041343669251,
"divergence": 0.03256764370490983,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T22:30:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 18.6% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.3208,
"contribution": 0.06654,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.249,
"contribution": 0.05164,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"roof_open",
"is_retract"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over",
"share": 0.1885,
"contribution": 0.03911,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 6.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1316,
"contribution": -0.02731,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_elo",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.11,
"contribution": -0.02282,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.32151139167543374,
"p_shipped": 0.49890089760692713,
"model_mu": 6.270479027588202,
"market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
"divergence": -0.19519811989268965,
"band": "A",
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 6.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.2457,
"contribution": -0.18562,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_elo",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.243,
"contribution": -0.18355,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2284,
"contribution": -0.17255,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_prev_pitches",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the away team",
"share": 0.1623,
"contribution": -0.12262,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_miles7d_k",
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_dan"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0786,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0419,
"contribution": -0.03164,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T22:30:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.3236673243899767,
"p_shipped": 0.4875742469698463,
"model_mu": 7.3816580241185115,
"market_p": 0.5,
"divergence": -0.1763326756100233,
"band": "A",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T22:30:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 6.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.2557,
"contribution": -0.18562,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_elo",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2377,
"contribution": -0.17255,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_prev_pitches",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2362,
"contribution": -0.17151,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the away team",
"share": 0.1689,
"contribution": -0.12262,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_miles7d_k",
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_dan"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
"share": 0.1015,
"contribution": -0.07372,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
}
]
}
]