Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5507175822507752,
"p_shipped": 0.5814636072288696,
"model_mu": 4.036838444362858,
"market_p": 0.5658914728682171,
"divergence": -0.015173890617441899,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 3.5,
"anchor_book": "williamhill_us",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": null,
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~4 mph net",
"share": 0.2626,
"contribution": 0.12968,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.2159,
"contribution": -0.10664,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team walking more than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2085,
"contribution": 0.103,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_bb30",
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 29% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.1613,
"contribution": -0.07965,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_days_rest_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1517,
"contribution": -0.07495,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"h_elo",
"a_rs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-20T00:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.49985063236309907,
"p_shipped": 0.5235502403654592,
"model_mu": 4.481434011050329,
"market_p": 0.5219638242894057,
"divergence": -0.02211319192630662,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-20T00:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": null,
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 29% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.3117,
"contribution": -0.19756,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~5 mph net",
"share": 0.2148,
"contribution": 0.13617,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team walking more than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.187,
"contribution": 0.11852,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_bb30",
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1682,
"contribution": -0.10664,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1182,
"contribution": -0.07495,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"h_elo",
"a_rs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4516041607756745,
"p_shipped": 0.4735336781696198,
"model_mu": 7.470511618428192,
"market_p": 0.45569620253164556,
"divergence": -0.004092041755971054,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "onexbet",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": null,
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.394,
"contribution": -0.17439,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2528,
"contribution": -0.11189,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under",
"share": 0.1502,
"contribution": -0.06648,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_bb30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
"share": 0.1062,
"contribution": 0.04701,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_recent_debuts",
"h_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0967,
"contribution": 0.0428,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"a_sp_pitch_miss"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-20T00:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.44823022792096895,
"p_shipped": 0.48280471789237456,
"model_mu": 7.738560564607074,
"market_p": 0.48205128205128206,
"divergence": -0.03382105413031311,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-20T00:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": null,
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.4116,
"contribution": -0.17439,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2641,
"contribution": -0.11189,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans under",
"share": 0.1169,
"contribution": -0.04951,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_bb30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
"share": 0.111,
"contribution": 0.04701,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_recent_debuts",
"h_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0964,
"contribution": 0.04084,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_opener",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
}
]
}
]