Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.4835534937756429,
"p_shipped": 0.5161188167358208,
"model_mu": 3.7365921726381695,
"market_p": 0.5154639175257731,
"divergence": -0.03191042375013026,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 29.4% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.3908,
"contribution": -0.19308,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~4 mph net",
"share": 0.1973,
"contribution": 0.09747,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1402,
"contribution": -0.06928,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "High-strikeout umpire zone",
"share": 0.1205,
"contribution": -0.05952,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_k_dev_sd",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1097,
"contribution": 0.05421,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0414,
"contribution": 0.02046,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T01:00:01Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.4792808533352163,
"p_shipped": 0.49364356175645674,
"model_mu": 4.347345437677964,
"market_p": 0.49095607235142114,
"divergence": -0.01167521901620483,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T01:00:01Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 29.4% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.3946,
"contribution": -0.19308,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~5 mph net",
"share": 0.2373,
"contribution": 0.11612,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1416,
"contribution": -0.06928,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "High-strikeout umpire zone",
"share": 0.1216,
"contribution": -0.05952,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_k_dev_sd",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1049,
"contribution": 0.05134,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_platoon_share"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5607549285699107,
"p_shipped": 0.4948354863770541,
"model_mu": 7.936624567757614,
"market_p": 0.4832904884318767,
"divergence": 0.077464440138034,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.3895,
"contribution": 0.17593,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_b2b",
"a_bp_yday_extras",
"a_bp_pitches_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2738,
"contribution": -0.12367,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1385,
"contribution": 0.06254,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1195,
"contribution": 0.05396,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"h_err30",
"h_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0787,
"contribution": 0.03555,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T01:00:01Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.559309127645251,
"p_shipped": 0.48593199794004105,
"model_mu": 8.460885522222878,
"market_p": 0.48071979434447304,
"divergence": 0.07858933330077794,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T01:00:01Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.3835,
"contribution": 0.17593,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_b2b",
"a_bp_yday_extras",
"a_bp_pitches_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2696,
"contribution": -0.12367,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1363,
"contribution": 0.06254,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1176,
"contribution": 0.05396,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"h_err30",
"h_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.093,
"contribution": -0.04266,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"a_backup_catcher",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
}
]