Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels

Thu 9/17 · 8:38 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · UNDER 8.0 RUNS

A cards like this have won 54% under · market 50% · stake 1u

FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 4.0

B cards like this have won 49% under · market 49%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 14-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The away team allowing 6.1 runs a game, last 30 — above league average. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the under50%

The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games29%

Backup catcher starting11%

Defense leans under — mostly the away team6%

Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team — day game, then travel5%

Market: Under 8.0 runs at -108 (pinnacle, quoted 7:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~7.2 runs · divergence 14 points — band A. A-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. A cards in this market have won 54.4% of 927 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +3.5 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 1u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

TOTALFrozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade A. · both passes leaned this way.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Under 4.0 -101 → closed +104 · away

TOTALanchor Under 8.0 runs -108 → closed -108 · unchanged

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Getaway day (day game, then travel)Catcher rest spotSeptember call-up lineup

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

SERIES_UNDER The last game in this series finished 5 runs under its closing total — 3 runs against a total of 8. In 2021–25, the next game went under 54.6% of the time · personal rule, not graded

Raw grade details (all passes)

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  "rung": "l1",
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  "divergence": -0.10374611376034282,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
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  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
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  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
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    "share": 0.3504,
    "contribution": -0.23301,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
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     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
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    "share": 0.2143,
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    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
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   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter holds up the third time through the order",
    "share": 0.2086,
    "contribution": -0.13867,
    "kind": "driver",
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   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~6 mph net",
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     "roof_open",
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     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
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    "share": 0.0422,
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    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
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     "a_cs30"
    ]
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 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
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  "lineup_known": 1,
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  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
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    "share": 0.3456,
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    "kind": "driver",
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   {
    "family": "offense",
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    "kind": "driver",
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    "family": "starters",
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     "roof_open",
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    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
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    "share": 0.0251,
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    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
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    ]
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 },
 {
  "market": "total",
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    "family": "strength",
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    "share": 0.5353,
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    "family": "offense",
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     "h_off_hr30",
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   {
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    "share": 0.0634,
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   {
    "family": "situational",
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    "share": 0.0534,
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    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
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    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "3 recent call-ups for the away team",
    "share": 0.0486,
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    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_recent_debuts",
     "h_recent_debuts"
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 },
 {
  "market": "total",
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  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
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    "share": 0.4983,
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    "kind": "driver",
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     "a_ra30",
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    "family": "offense",
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     "h_off_k30"
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    "family": "battery",
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     "h_backup_catcher",
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   {
    "family": "defense",
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    "kind": "driver",
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     "a_err30",
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   {
    "family": "situational",
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    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
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     "a_getaway"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]