Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels

Wed 9/16 · 8:38 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 4.0

A cards like this have won 55% under · market 48% · stake 1u

TOTAL · UNDER 8.0 RUNS

B cards like this have won 52% under · market 51% · stake 0.5u

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 17-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The home starter up 2.2 mph in his last start35%

The away team allowing 6 runs a game, last 30 — above league average. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the under25%

The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games17%

Wind blowing out, ~7 mph netagainst the under15%

Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year — more called strikes7%

Market: First-5-innings Under 4.0 at +103 (pinnacle, quoted 7:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~3.7 runs · divergence 17 points — band A. A-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. A cards in this market have won 54.6% of 414 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +3.7 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 1u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

TOTALFrozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade B. · both passes leaned this way.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Under 4.0 +103 → closed +104 · away

TOTALanchor Under 8.0 runs -109 → closed -108 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

September call-up lineupHigh-scoring umpire

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.3656910565937429,
  "p_shipped": 0.5183088694063325,
  "model_mu": 3.2552200605649677,
  "market_p": 0.5283505154639175,
  "divergence": -0.16265945887017463,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter up 2.2 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.3527,
    "contribution": -0.31618,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.2527,
    "contribution": -0.22655,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~7 mph net",
    "share": 0.1701,
    "contribution": 0.15248,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1533,
    "contribution": -0.1374,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.0712,
    "contribution": -0.06384,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T00:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.3568158745759755,
  "p_shipped": 0.5128618272373218,
  "model_mu": 3.7291640419810586,
  "market_p": 0.5231958762886597,
  "divergence": -0.1663800017126842,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T00:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter up 2.2 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.354,
    "contribution": -0.31618,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.2536,
    "contribution": -0.22655,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1735,
    "contribution": -0.15499,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~7 mph net",
    "share": 0.1474,
    "contribution": 0.13161,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.0715,
    "contribution": -0.06384,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.38994777586774365,
  "p_shipped": 0.5185536544208157,
  "model_mu": 6.523901679375713,
  "market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
  "divergence": -0.12676173570037974,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.4236,
    "contribution": -0.28838,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2598,
    "contribution": -0.17685,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
    "share": 0.1479,
    "contribution": 0.10069,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "h_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire leans under",
    "share": 0.0846,
    "contribution": -0.0576,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter up 2.2 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.0841,
    "contribution": -0.05725,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T00:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.3866822413150322,
  "p_shipped": 0.49734069119589414,
  "model_mu": 7.312362838680031,
  "market_p": 0.493573264781491,
  "divergence": -0.10689102346645879,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T00:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.4232,
    "contribution": -0.28838,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2605,
    "contribution": -0.17751,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
    "share": 0.1478,
    "contribution": 0.10069,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "h_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire leans under",
    "share": 0.0845,
    "contribution": -0.0576,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter up 2.2 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.084,
    "contribution": -0.05725,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]