Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals

Tue 9/8 · 6:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · OVER 9.0 RUNS

B cards like this have won 52% over · market 51% · stake 0.5u

FIRST 5 INNINGS

no lean

model 53% over · market 52%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 10-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

97°F — heat carries the ball40%

Team strength & form leans over — mostly the away team21%

Starting pitchers leans over — mostly the away team18%

Schedule spot leans over — mostly the home team12%

Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most10%

Market: Over 9.0 runs at -109 (pinnacle, quoted 5:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~10.8 runs · divergence 10 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 52.2% of 1,393 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.2 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 0.5u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade no lean.

TOTALFrozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade B. · both passes leaned this way.

anchor Over 9.0 runs -109 → closed -108 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)Heavily used bullpenExtra innings yesterdayHot day (90°+)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5343370502825562,
  "p_shipped": 0.47462039606771345,
  "model_mu": 5.307354378109133,
  "market_p": 0.47680412371134023,
  "divergence": 0.05753292657121595,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "98\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.4776,
    "contribution": 0.3713,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter back from a 30+ day MLB gap \u2014 established arm",
    "share": 0.2924,
    "contribution": -0.2273,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_return_vet",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1178,
    "contribution": 0.09155,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.0842,
    "contribution": 0.06543,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0281,
    "contribution": -0.02183,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-08T22:30:36Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.550452889080893,
  "p_shipped": 0.5292963493448278,
  "model_mu": 5.772450349550001,
  "market_p": 0.524547803617571,
  "divergence": 0.02590508546332193,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T22:30:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "97\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.4575,
    "contribution": 0.3425,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter back from a 30+ day MLB gap \u2014 established arm",
    "share": 0.3036,
    "contribution": -0.2273,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_return_vet",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1223,
    "contribution": 0.09155,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.0874,
    "contribution": 0.06543,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0292,
    "contribution": -0.02183,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6009531921847955,
  "p_shipped": 0.47837173207669764,
  "model_mu": 10.07186981043556,
  "market_p": 0.4743589743589744,
  "divergence": 0.1265942178258211,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 9.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "98\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.413,
    "contribution": 0.22546,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1995,
    "contribution": 0.10893,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1702,
    "contribution": 0.09292,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_pitch_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1171,
    "contribution": 0.06395,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.1002,
    "contribution": 0.05469,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-08T22:30:36Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.604776640584405,
  "p_shipped": 0.49020612138576,
  "model_mu": 10.838060887990487,
  "market_p": 0.5064267352185091,
  "divergence": 0.09834990536589583,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 9.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T22:30:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "97\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.3961,
    "contribution": 0.21022,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2053,
    "contribution": 0.10893,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1751,
    "contribution": 0.09292,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_pitch_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1205,
    "contribution": 0.06395,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.1031,
    "contribution": 0.05469,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]