Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals

Sun 9/6 · 1:10 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · UNDER 9.5 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% under · market 52%

FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 5.0

C cards like this have won 51% under · market 47%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 8-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The away starter walks 11.8% of batters, adjusted — a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the under27%

98°F — heat carries the ballagainst the under26%

Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team — day game, then travel26%

Strike-throwing umpire zone8%

Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games. Priced in, and it went too faragainst the under5%

WHAT WE COULDN'T SEEpriced into our number — not evidence about this game

No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher — graded at league average7%

Market: Under 9.5 runs at -116 (pinnacle, quoted 12:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~9.3 runs · divergence 8 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 52.2% of 2,317 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

FIRST 5Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.

TOTALFrozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Under 5.0 +105 → closed +103 · our way

TOTALanchor Under 9.5 runs -116 → closed -116 · unchanged

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Catcher rest spotVeteran rest spotDay game after a night gameGetaway day (day game, then travel)Starter recently back from injuryHot day (90°+)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4599607647055621,
  "p_shipped": 0.5264850477955031,
  "model_mu": 4.8428237902111935,
  "market_p": 0.5259067357512953,
  "divergence": -0.06594597104573324,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "99\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.3438,
    "contribution": 0.14466,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.3006,
    "contribution": -0.12652,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1662,
    "contribution": -0.06995,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter recently back from injury",
    "share": 0.0998,
    "contribution": 0.04201,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_il_return",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0896,
    "contribution": -0.03769,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_framing_miss"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T17:00:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4503542854382083,
  "p_shipped": 0.5290627326182223,
  "model_mu": 5.533946470966855,
  "market_p": 0.5283505154639175,
  "divergence": -0.07799623002570921,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T17:00:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.3026,
    "contribution": -0.12652,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "98\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2838,
    "contribution": 0.11864,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1698,
    "contribution": -0.07099,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.1181,
    "contribution": -0.04937,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "a_backup_catcher"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter recently back from injury",
    "share": 0.1005,
    "contribution": 0.04201,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_il_return",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.0252,
    "contribution": 0.01054,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.40570681062955793,
  "p_shipped": 0.4796050298936085,
  "model_mu": 8.289149303272767,
  "market_p": 0.48062015503875977,
  "divergence": -0.07491334440920183,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 9.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "99\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2986,
    "contribution": 0.23978,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter walks 11.8% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.2819,
    "contribution": -0.22639,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.2754,
    "contribution": -0.22116,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
    "share": 0.0825,
    "contribution": -0.06627,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0616,
    "contribution": -0.04948,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T17:00:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.39494961022806613,
  "p_shipped": 0.4707791552906253,
  "model_mu": 9.263164700626566,
  "market_p": 0.47814910025706947,
  "divergence": -0.08319949002900334,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 9.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T17:00:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter walks 11.8% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.2678,
    "contribution": -0.22639,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "98\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2646,
    "contribution": 0.22368,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.2616,
    "contribution": -0.22116,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
    "share": 0.0784,
    "contribution": -0.06627,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.0741,
    "contribution": -0.06268,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_framing_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.0536,
    "contribution": 0.04532,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]