Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.532903338109841,
"p_shipped": 0.5324617431563268,
"model_mu": 5.344816303843203,
"market_p": 0.5193798449612403,
"divergence": 0.013523493148600685,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "101\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.5397,
"contribution": 0.28998,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.1757,
"contribution": 0.09441,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1454,
"contribution": -0.07812,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0702,
"contribution": -0.03769,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"h_framing_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter up 1.7 mph in his last start",
"share": 0.069,
"contribution": -0.03709,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T22:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5233737755362062,
"p_shipped": 0.5296024958621186,
"model_mu": 6.072038330270183,
"market_p": 0.5193798449612403,
"divergence": 0.003993930574965887,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T22:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "99\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.505,
"contribution": 0.22313,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.2137,
"contribution": 0.09441,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1121,
"contribution": -0.04951,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_hr30",
"h_platoon_share",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0853,
"contribution": -0.03769,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"h_framing_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter up 1.7 mph in his last start",
"share": 0.0839,
"contribution": -0.03709,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5338235805341258,
"p_shipped": 0.48287188431067773,
"model_mu": 9.353869583321327,
"market_p": 0.48843187660668386,
"divergence": 0.04539170392744196,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 9.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "101\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.4521,
"contribution": 0.18911,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"alt_kft",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.1614,
"contribution": 0.06752,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_elo",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.1405,
"contribution": 0.05875,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1372,
"contribution": -0.05738,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter up 1.7 mph in his last start",
"share": 0.1089,
"contribution": -0.04553,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-05T22:00:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5290397385507292,
"p_shipped": 0.4755188207917284,
"model_mu": 10.526918517817855,
"market_p": 0.48843187660668386,
"divergence": 0.04060786194404531,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 9.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T22:00:14Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "99\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.4178,
"contribution": 0.15069,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.1872,
"contribution": 0.06752,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_elo",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.1629,
"contribution": 0.05875,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter up 1.7 mph in his last start",
"share": 0.1262,
"contribution": -0.04553,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1058,
"contribution": -0.03817,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
}
]
}
]