Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5600294320153455,
"p_shipped": 0.4965018858441697,
"model_mu": 4.682689369252117,
"market_p": 0.4780361757105944,
"divergence": 0.08199325630475107,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "97\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.5187,
"contribution": 0.3542,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 488 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.1601,
"contribution": -0.10932,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_tto_decay"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1524,
"contribution": -0.10403,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.087,
"contribution": 0.05942,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0455,
"contribution": 0.03105,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.0363,
"contribution": 0.02481,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_k_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T22:30:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5579862702025,
"p_shipped": 0.5129155064223695,
"model_mu": 5.413723950028831,
"market_p": 0.4935400516795866,
"divergence": 0.06444621852291343,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T22:30:19Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "97\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.5134,
"contribution": 0.33156,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 488 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.1693,
"contribution": -0.10932,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_tto_decay"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1389,
"contribution": -0.08968,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.092,
"contribution": 0.05942,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.0481,
"contribution": 0.03105,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.0384,
"contribution": 0.02481,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_k_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5357318405903059,
"p_shipped": 0.4968580874398539,
"model_mu": 8.085579299559575,
"market_p": 0.5141388174807198,
"divergence": 0.021593023109586107,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "97\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.3635,
"contribution": 0.2208,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2941,
"contribution": -0.17861,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.1812,
"contribution": 0.11007,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0924,
"contribution": 0.05612,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_inn1_whiff",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0688,
"contribution": 0.04178,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_k_pct30",
"h_bp_apps_3d"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T22:30:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5293952487445811,
"p_shipped": 0.4771929111357042,
"model_mu": 9.555542001718177,
"market_p": 0.493573264781491,
"divergence": 0.03582198396309011,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 9.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T22:30:19Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "97\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.3594,
"contribution": 0.20862,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2823,
"contribution": -0.1639,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.1896,
"contribution": 0.11007,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0967,
"contribution": 0.05612,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_inn1_whiff",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.072,
"contribution": 0.04178,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_k_pct30",
"h_bp_apps_3d"
]
}
]
}
]