Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5037508934046516,
"p_shipped": 0.48654905187015957,
"model_mu": 5.117121069416434,
"market_p": 0.49095607235142114,
"divergence": 0.012794821053230487,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "97\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.37,
"contribution": 0.35769,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire tendency history \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2607,
"contribution": -0.25203,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.179,
"contribution": 0.17306,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1217,
"contribution": -0.11762,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0373,
"contribution": 0.03606,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0313,
"contribution": 0.03027,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-01T22:30:25Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.6041854734370775,
"p_shipped": 0.48742144771570706,
"model_mu": 6.309679838554898,
"market_p": 0.4883720930232558,
"divergence": 0.11581338041382172,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 5.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T22:30:25Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "97\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.4148,
"contribution": 0.33659,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2133,
"contribution": 0.17306,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Hitter-friendly umpire zone",
"share": 0.2003,
"contribution": 0.16257,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_k_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1272,
"contribution": -0.1032,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0444,
"contribution": 0.03606,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.40128481114014586,
"p_shipped": 0.47666546455866793,
"model_mu": 8.883340955060355,
"market_p": 0.4832904884318767,
"divergence": -0.08200567729173086,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 10.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "97\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.2984,
"contribution": 0.22099,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2337,
"contribution": -0.17305,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2259,
"contribution": -0.16726,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.1411,
"contribution": -0.10448,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_opener",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.9 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1009,
"contribution": 0.0747,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-01T22:30:25Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.45100949820515335,
"p_shipped": 0.475713675039893,
"model_mu": 10.520597560252227,
"market_p": 0.48843187660668386,
"divergence": -0.03742237840153051,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 10.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T22:30:25Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "97\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.27,
"contribution": 0.21038,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2221,
"contribution": -0.17305,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.195,
"contribution": -0.15193,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.1789,
"contribution": 0.13945,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.1341,
"contribution": -0.10448,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_opener",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
}
]
}
]