Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros

Sat 9/19 · 6:10 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 5.0

A cards like this have won 55% over · market 48% · stake 1u

TOTAL

no lean

model 53% over · market 53%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 12-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The home starter down 1.4 mph in his last start47%

Team strength & form leans over — mostly the away team18%

Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year — fewer called strikes15%

Offense profile leans under — mostly the away teamagainst the over11%

Behind the plate leans over — mostly the home team10%

Market: First-5-innings Over 5.0 at +101 (pinnacle, quoted 5:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~6.2 runs · divergence 12 points — band A. A-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. A cards in this market have won 54.6% of 414 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +3.7 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 1u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

Frozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Heavily used bullpen

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6085629317889601,
  "p_shipped": 0.48372631912140684,
  "model_mu": 4.908789710582281,
  "market_p": 0.4678663239074551,
  "divergence": 0.14069660788150506,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter down 1.4 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.4964,
    "contribution": 0.3035,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_tto_decay",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1896,
    "contribution": 0.11595,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.1551,
    "contribution": 0.09485,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1051,
    "contribution": 0.06427,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0537,
    "contribution": -0.03282,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_xbh30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T22:00:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6036912528323019,
  "p_shipped": 0.5024164211955848,
  "model_mu": 6.153446444126169,
  "market_p": 0.48195876288659806,
  "divergence": 0.12173248994570379,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T22:00:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter down 1.4 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.4689,
    "contribution": 0.3035,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_tto_decay",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1791,
    "contribution": 0.11595,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.1465,
    "contribution": 0.09485,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1061,
    "contribution": -0.0687,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_platoon_share",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0993,
    "contribution": 0.06427,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.537485767961375,
  "p_shipped": 0.4998216747966426,
  "model_mu": 8.312286303281262,
  "market_p": 0.4961439588688946,
  "divergence": 0.04134180909248042,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.2777,
    "contribution": 0.14751,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2266,
    "contribution": 0.12037,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1322,
    "contribution": -0.07019,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "No wind reading \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1229,
    "contribution": -0.06526,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "wind_miss",
     "is_retract",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1225,
    "contribution": -0.06507,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1181,
    "contribution": 0.06272,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T22:00:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5545277370579876,
  "p_shipped": 0.5270934206536699,
  "model_mu": 9.881120077483601,
  "market_p": 0.5282051282051282,
  "divergence": 0.02632260885285942,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T22:00:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.3082,
    "contribution": 0.14751,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2515,
    "contribution": 0.12037,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1733,
    "contribution": -0.08295,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.136,
    "contribution": -0.06507,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.131,
    "contribution": 0.06272,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]