Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5387710465830348,
"p_shipped": 0.4794289045512461,
"model_mu": 4.397390360410442,
"market_p": 0.4832041343669251,
"divergence": 0.055566912216109654,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.3723,
"contribution": 0.10384,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cs30",
"h_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 17% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2936,
"contribution": 0.08189,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_opener"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league",
"share": 0.153,
"contribution": 0.04269,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1053,
"contribution": 0.02939,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss",
"h_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
"share": 0.0691,
"contribution": 0.01927,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"wx_miss",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.0067,
"contribution": 0.00187,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_elo",
"h_rs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-16T23:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5503478331901364,
"p_shipped": 0.48078655930926656,
"model_mu": 5.566095377756998,
"market_p": 0.48062015503875977,
"divergence": 0.0697276781513766,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T23:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.3189,
"contribution": 0.10384,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cs30",
"h_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 17% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2515,
"contribution": 0.08189,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_opener"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1861,
"contribution": 0.06059,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_platoon_share",
"a_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league",
"share": 0.1311,
"contribution": 0.04269,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.1067,
"contribution": 0.03474,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"alt_kft",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.0057,
"contribution": 0.00187,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_elo",
"h_rs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5191930304039362,
"p_shipped": 0.4977264322611329,
"model_mu": 8.07366302948631,
"market_p": 0.48843187660668386,
"divergence": 0.030761153797252305,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 9.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2159,
"contribution": 0.07647,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss",
"a_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.1941,
"contribution": 0.06876,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "No wind reading \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1887,
"contribution": -0.06683,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"wind_miss",
"is_retract",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1394,
"contribution": 0.04938,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire leans over",
"share": 0.1144,
"contribution": 0.04052,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_rpg_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
"share": 0.0966,
"contribution": -0.03421,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen rested the last three days",
"share": 0.0508,
"contribution": -0.018,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-16T23:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5454888183142234,
"p_shipped": 0.49695346983039695,
"model_mu": 9.780558097759238,
"market_p": 0.4832904884318767,
"divergence": 0.06219832988234664,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 9.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T23:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.323,
"contribution": 0.10061,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_bb30",
"h_platoon_share"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.2208,
"contribution": 0.06876,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.1585,
"contribution": 0.04938,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire leans over",
"share": 0.1301,
"contribution": 0.04052,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_rpg_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
"share": 0.1098,
"contribution": -0.03421,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen rested the last three days",
"share": 0.0578,
"contribution": -0.018,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d"
]
}
]
}
]