Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.594794387635763,
"p_shipped": 0.48046149335395405,
"model_mu": 5.09855740458261,
"market_p": 0.4805194805194806,
"divergence": 0.11427490711628235,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No prior major-league start on record for the home starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.5812,
"contribution": 0.29486,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_sp_days_rest_miss",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2108,
"contribution": 0.10696,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cs30",
"h_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.108,
"contribution": 0.05482,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_bb30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.0594,
"contribution": 0.03014,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_width_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
"share": 0.0378,
"contribution": 0.01915,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"wx_miss",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.9 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.0028,
"contribution": 0.00144,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-17T22:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5629046068558576,
"p_shipped": 0.47368203429424083,
"model_mu": 5.745305735705759,
"market_p": 0.4780361757105944,
"divergence": 0.08486843114526321,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T22:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 42 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.4435,
"contribution": 0.16698,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_opener",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.2841,
"contribution": 0.10696,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cs30",
"h_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0966,
"contribution": 0.03636,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_platoon_share",
"a_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.092,
"contribution": 0.03463,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"alt_kft",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.0801,
"contribution": 0.03014,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_width_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.9 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.0038,
"contribution": 0.00144,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5538217051831987,
"p_shipped": 0.4740156488396961,
"model_mu": 8.378930672757656,
"market_p": 0.4832041343669251,
"divergence": 0.07061757081627362,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 9.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No pitch-tracking data for the home starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2028,
"contribution": 0.14431,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitch_miss",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.1938,
"contribution": -0.13787,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1572,
"contribution": 0.11185,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_bb30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.1148,
"contribution": 0.08168,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.9 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.1094,
"contribution": 0.07783,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "No wind reading \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0926,
"contribution": -0.06589,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"wind_miss",
"is_retract",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0814,
"contribution": 0.05793,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
"share": 0.0481,
"contribution": -0.03421,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-17T22:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5959493096965218,
"p_shipped": 0.47263011135660726,
"model_mu": 10.211810678656825,
"market_p": 0.4743589743589744,
"divergence": 0.12159033533754743,
"band": "A",
"anchor_line": 9.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T22:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "One driver on this card sits far outside its normal range; the model is extrapolating.",
"share": 0.3686,
"contribution": 0.23759,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bf_per_start",
"h_sp_prev_pitches",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.2139,
"contribution": -0.13787,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.17,
"contribution": 0.10955,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_bb30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
"share": 0.1267,
"contribution": 0.08168,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.9 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.1208,
"contribution": 0.07783,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
}
]
}
]