Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5389373265265212,
"p_shipped": 0.5086127120847032,
"model_mu": 4.040365133932406,
"market_p": 0.5233160621761658,
"divergence": 0.01562126435035538,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team walking more than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2673,
"contribution": 0.10184,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_bb30",
"a_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2206,
"contribution": 0.08403,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cs30",
"h_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1813,
"contribution": 0.06907,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"h_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1454,
"contribution": -0.05539,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "High-strikeout umpire zone",
"share": 0.1303,
"contribution": -0.04962,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_k_dev_sd",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
"share": 0.0551,
"contribution": 0.02099,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"wx_miss",
"alt_kft"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T23:00:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5316306164782664,
"p_shipped": 0.5180750757151021,
"model_mu": 4.99386983178764,
"market_p": 0.5231958762886597,
"divergence": 0.00843474018960666,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T23:00:19Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team walking more than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.24,
"contribution": 0.08439,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_bb30",
"a_off_hr30",
"h_platoon_share"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1965,
"contribution": 0.06907,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"h_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.1625,
"contribution": 0.05714,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1575,
"contribution": -0.05539,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "High-strikeout umpire zone",
"share": 0.1411,
"contribution": -0.04962,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_k_dev_sd",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.1023,
"contribution": 0.03595,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"alt_kft",
"wind_out_comp"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.4379500920174782,
"p_shipped": 0.5105666116470902,
"model_mu": 7.295858576965599,
"market_p": 0.518041237113402,
"divergence": -0.0800911450959238,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter threw 35 pitches last start",
"share": 0.2518,
"contribution": -0.10561,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_prev_pitches",
"a_sp_rest_z",
"a_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team walking more than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1826,
"contribution": 0.07657,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_bb30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
"share": 0.1638,
"contribution": -0.06869,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_asof",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "No wind reading \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1635,
"contribution": -0.06856,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"wind_miss",
"is_retract",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1501,
"contribution": -0.06295,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0881,
"contribution": 0.03694,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T23:00:19Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.44697643218394195,
"p_shipped": 0.5091465257648377,
"model_mu": 8.657523458060899,
"market_p": 0.517948717948718,
"divergence": -0.07097228576477604,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T23:00:19Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter threw 35 pitches last start",
"share": 0.2593,
"contribution": -0.10561,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_prev_pitches",
"a_sp_rest_z",
"a_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team walking more than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1864,
"contribution": 0.07592,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_bb30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
"share": 0.1687,
"contribution": -0.06869,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_asof",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1546,
"contribution": -0.06295,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.1402,
"contribution": -0.05709,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_backup_catcher",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0907,
"contribution": 0.03694,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
}
]
}
]