Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers

Sun 9/13 · 11:10 AM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 5.0

C cards like this have won 51% under · market 51%

TOTAL

no lean

model 49% over · market 48%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 7-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Both teams below league average in home runs, last 30 games30%

The home starter has thrown 431 pitches over 30 days24%

The away team playing like a .326 club right now18%

Park & environment leans overagainst the under15%

Umpire has given hitters the borderline call more than the league this past yearagainst the under12%

Market: First-5-innings Under 5.0 at -114 (pinnacle, quoted 10:00 AM CDT) · model expects ~4.8 runs · divergence 7 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 50.9% of 1,034 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -0.5 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.

anchor First-5 Under 5.0 -114 → closed -112 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Heavily used bullpenSeptember call-up lineupGetaway day (day game, then travel)Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)High-scoring umpire

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.42010003293976417,
  "p_shipped": 0.48369217383081764,
  "model_mu": 4.201691804864125,
  "market_p": 0.4935400516795866,
  "divergence": -0.07344001873982242,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Both teams below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2975,
    "contribution": -0.15446,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 431 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.2396,
    "contribution": -0.1244,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team playing like a .326 club right now",
    "share": 0.1803,
    "contribution": -0.09363,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.1628,
    "contribution": 0.08455,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire has given hitters the borderline call more than the league this past year",
    "share": 0.1197,
    "contribution": 0.06217,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T15:00:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4181349055363228,
  "p_shipped": 0.47685007477186564,
  "model_mu": 4.835765878257415,
  "market_p": 0.4870466321243523,
  "divergence": -0.06891172658802946,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T15:00:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Both teams below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3017,
    "contribution": -0.15377,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 431 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.244,
    "contribution": -0.1244,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team playing like a .326 club right now",
    "share": 0.1837,
    "contribution": -0.09363,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.1487,
    "contribution": 0.07579,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire has given hitters the borderline call more than the league this past year",
    "share": 0.122,
    "contribution": 0.06217,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4841472832037342,
  "p_shipped": 0.4956848837299284,
  "model_mu": 8.052980866265566,
  "market_p": 0.4961439588688946,
  "divergence": -0.011996675665160439,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 9.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "push",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2503,
    "contribution": -0.19195,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.2414,
    "contribution": 0.18515,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under",
    "share": 0.2148,
    "contribution": -0.16474,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_whiff",
     "a_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.1803,
    "contribution": 0.13823,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "3 recent call-ups for the home team",
    "share": 0.1131,
    "contribution": 0.08675,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T15:00:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4848053334882978,
  "p_shipped": 0.48798806152541363,
  "model_mu": 9.086790612208855,
  "market_p": 0.4832904884318767,
  "divergence": 0.001514845056421077,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 9.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T15:00:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "push",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2418,
    "contribution": -0.18051,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.2362,
    "contribution": 0.17634,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under",
    "share": 0.2207,
    "contribution": -0.16474,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_whiff",
     "a_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.1852,
    "contribution": 0.13823,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "3 recent call-ups for the home team",
    "share": 0.1162,
    "contribution": 0.08675,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]