SPOTTER.
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
Game View
first pitch 7:10 PM CDT

Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies

Sat 9/19 · 7:10 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: unknown
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 48% under · market 47%
TOTAL
no lean
model 50% under · market 50%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 2-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoringagainst the under41%
The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games9%
Team strength & form leans under — mostly the away team8%
Behind the plate leans overagainst the under2%
WHAT WE COULDN'T SEEpriced into our number — not evidence about this game
No prior major-league start on record for the home starter — graded on league-typical assumptionsagainst the under23%
No recent umpire zone reading against the league — graded on league-typical assumptions17%
Market: First-5-innings Under 5.5 at +101 (williamhill_us, quoted 8:15 AM CDT) · the full picture prices it +107 · model expects ~5.3 runs · divergence 2 points — band none.
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Deep into a road trip (game 7+)September call-up lineup
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. Umpire not yet confirmed. Lineups not posted at grade time. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.504940818718882,
  "p_shipped": 0.5174413018730661,
  "model_mu": 5.291764632782329,
  "market_p": 0.5289473684210526,
  "divergence": -0.024006549702170643,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 5.5,
  "anchor_book": "williamhill_us",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
    "share": 0.4087,
    "contribution": 0.30938,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "alt_kft",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "No prior major-league start on record for the home starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.2339,
    "contribution": 0.1771,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_days_rest_miss",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitch_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1701,
    "contribution": -0.12879,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_rel_miss",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0872,
    "contribution": -0.06601,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0837,
    "contribution": -0.06338,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans over",
    "share": 0.0164,
    "contribution": 0.01238,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4513811753993947,
  "p_shipped": 0.4999352242763423,
  "model_mu": 9.581383761917799,
  "market_p": 0.5,
  "divergence": -0.04861882460060529,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 10.5,
  "anchor_book": "onexbet",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2517,
    "contribution": -0.15997,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1875,
    "contribution": 0.1192,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_trip7",
     "a_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1825,
    "contribution": -0.11598,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "No pitch-tracking data for the home starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1489,
    "contribution": 0.09463,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitch_miss",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.0934,
    "contribution": -0.05936,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_zone_miss",
     "ump_gate_miss",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.074,
    "contribution": -0.04701,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
    "share": 0.0621,
    "contribution": 0.03945,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "alt_kft",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]