Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5099070107382271,
"p_shipped": 0.47486992184322624,
"model_mu": 5.886514064496657,
"market_p": 0.47680412371134023,
"divergence": 0.03310288702688685,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 6.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
"share": 0.4614,
"contribution": 0.27643,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"alt_kft",
"day_game",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1908,
"contribution": 0.11432,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_opener",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 6.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.1519,
"contribution": 0.09099,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"h_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.0995,
"contribution": -0.05964,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0963,
"contribution": -0.05771,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss",
"h_platoon_miss"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-17T18:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5093661679422906,
"p_shipped": 0.4816195799399341,
"model_mu": 6.781939638307286,
"market_p": 0.4832041343669251,
"divergence": 0.026162033575365506,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 6.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T18:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
"share": 0.4539,
"contribution": 0.27036,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"alt_kft",
"day_game",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.192,
"contribution": 0.11432,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_opener",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 6.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.1528,
"contribution": 0.09099,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"h_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1001,
"contribution": -0.05964,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.0524,
"contribution": -0.03118,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_backup_catcher",
"a_backup_catcher"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0489,
"contribution": -0.0291,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_platoon_share",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5140231088474821,
"p_shipped": 0.4958682823776325,
"model_mu": 10.134498582140964,
"market_p": 0.48071979434447304,
"divergence": 0.03330331450300911,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 11.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.2579,
"contribution": -0.26064,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 6.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.2466,
"contribution": 0.24916,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter walks 5.5% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.213,
"contribution": 0.21522,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
"share": 0.1771,
"contribution": 0.17896,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"alt_kft",
"park_f5_asof",
"day_game"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1054,
"contribution": -0.10655,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_k_pct30",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-17T18:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5097267299982174,
"p_shipped": 0.5069775774923126,
"model_mu": 10.936824510579052,
"market_p": 0.5115681233933163,
"divergence": -0.0018413933950988115,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 10.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T18:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.2579,
"contribution": -0.26064,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 6.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.2466,
"contribution": 0.24916,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter walks 5.5% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.213,
"contribution": 0.21522,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
"share": 0.174,
"contribution": 0.17586,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"alt_kft",
"park_f5_asof",
"day_game"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The away team throws out base stealers",
"share": 0.1084,
"contribution": -0.10955,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_cs30",
"a_framing_miss",
"h_backup_catcher"
]
}
]
}
]