San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies

Thu 9/17 · 7:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · UNDER 11.0 RUNS

B cards like this have won 52% under · market 52% · stake 0.5u

FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 6.0

C cards like this have won 51% under · market 51%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 9-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The home team allowing 6.1 runs a game, last 30 — above league averageagainst the under30%

The away starter walks 11.8% of batters, adjusted — a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the under29%

Bullpen leans under — mostly the home team20%

The away team throws out base stealers15%

The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games7%

Market: Under 11.0 runs at -114 (pinnacle, quoted 6:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~10.5 runs · divergence 9 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 52.2% of 1,393 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.2 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 0.5u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.

TOTALFrozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade B. · both passes leaned this way.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Under 6.0 -110 → closed -110 · unchanged

TOTALanchor Under 11.0 runs -114 → closed -116 · our way

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Heavily used bullpenLow-scoring umpire

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.3976537840157637,
  "p_shipped": 0.46060577291938987,
  "model_mu": 4.922730298929092,
  "market_p": 0.47680412371134023,
  "divergence": -0.07915033969557655,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 6.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter walks 11.8% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.2738,
    "contribution": -0.1399,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
    "share": 0.2172,
    "contribution": 0.11097,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "alt_kft",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 6.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.19,
    "contribution": 0.09706,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
    "share": 0.1875,
    "contribution": -0.0958,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1316,
    "contribution": -0.06723,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T23:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.44296068974000274,
  "p_shipped": 0.479318835330376,
  "model_mu": 6.066673617097731,
  "market_p": 0.4935400516795866,
  "divergence": -0.050579361939583845,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 6.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T23:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
    "share": 0.441,
    "contribution": 0.29229,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "alt_kft",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter walks 11.8% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.2111,
    "contribution": -0.1399,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 6.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1464,
    "contribution": 0.09706,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
    "share": 0.1445,
    "contribution": -0.0958,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.057,
    "contribution": -0.03776,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_platoon_share",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.38200997484033117,
  "p_shipped": 0.5044249335594351,
  "model_mu": 9.006573623140426,
  "market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
  "divergence": -0.13469953672779222,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 11.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 6.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.3123,
    "contribution": 0.24523,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter walks 11.8% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.3009,
    "contribution": -0.23629,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2051,
    "contribution": -0.16105,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1049,
    "contribution": -0.0824,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Both teams throw out base stealers",
    "share": 0.0769,
    "contribution": -0.06037,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_cs30",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_wp_pb30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T23:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.39512390187283314,
  "p_shipped": 0.477059863143856,
  "model_mu": 10.500509105880166,
  "market_p": 0.4832904884318767,
  "divergence": -0.08816658655904358,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 11.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T23:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 6.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.297,
    "contribution": 0.24523,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter walks 11.8% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.2861,
    "contribution": -0.23629,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.195,
    "contribution": -0.16105,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The away team throws out base stealers",
    "share": 0.1473,
    "contribution": -0.12167,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_cs30",
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_backup_catcher"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0745,
    "contribution": -0.06154,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]