Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians

Sun 9/6 · 12:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 3.5

A cards like this have won 55% under · market 47% · stake 1u

TOTAL

no lean

model 53% under · market 52%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 13-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The home starter strikes out 31.6% of batters, adjusted — a higher strikeout rate than average40%

The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate25%

Wind blowing in, ~10 mph net18%

The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games9%

Team strength & form leans over — mostly the away teamagainst the under8%

Market: First-5-innings Under 3.5 at +106 (pinnacle, quoted 11:30 AM CDT) · model expects ~3.8 runs · divergence 13 points — band A. A-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. A cards in this market have won 54.6% of 414 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +3.7 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 1u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade A. · both passes leaned this way.

TOTALFrozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade no lean.

anchor First-5 Under 3.5 +106 → closed +105 · our way

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Wind blowing inHeavily used bullpenCatcher rest spotSeptember call-up lineupDay game after a night gameGetaway day (day game, then travel)Deep into a road trip (game 7+)Low-scoring umpire

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.3764525258440182,
  "p_shipped": 0.44290138713811644,
  "model_mu": 3.5259169386336198,
  "market_p": 0.4652956298200514,
  "divergence": -0.08884310397603318,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "push",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter strikes out 31.6% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.389,
    "contribution": -0.251,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~11 mph net",
    "share": 0.1996,
    "contribution": -0.12881,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "day_game",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
    "share": 0.1746,
    "contribution": -0.11266,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1623,
    "contribution": -0.10473,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0744,
    "contribution": 0.04801,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T16:30:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.40326449896933825,
  "p_shipped": 0.5119879215538077,
  "model_mu": 3.8285015396017816,
  "market_p": 0.5309278350515463,
  "divergence": -0.12766333608220803,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 3.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T16:30:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter strikes out 31.6% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.3985,
    "contribution": -0.251,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
    "share": 0.252,
    "contribution": -0.15868,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~10 mph net",
    "share": 0.1815,
    "contribution": -0.11429,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "day_game",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0918,
    "contribution": -0.05783,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0762,
    "contribution": 0.04801,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4335675740664964,
  "p_shipped": 0.48714391108214294,
  "model_mu": 6.713610508627257,
  "market_p": 0.5064267352185091,
  "divergence": -0.07285916115201274,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 7.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.3945,
    "contribution": -0.27803,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3034,
    "contribution": -0.21381,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.1094,
    "contribution": 0.07709,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire leans over",
    "share": 0.097,
    "contribution": 0.06837,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_asof",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.0957,
    "contribution": 0.06747,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_recent_debuts",
     "h_recent_debuts"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T16:30:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.43280608352985944,
  "p_shipped": 0.46597224590504877,
  "model_mu": 7.679029988478758,
  "market_p": 0.4832904884318767,
  "divergence": -0.05048440490201728,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T16:30:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.4073,
    "contribution": -0.27803,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2674,
    "contribution": -0.1825,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.1263,
    "contribution": 0.08619,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire leans over",
    "share": 0.1002,
    "contribution": 0.06837,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_asof",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.0988,
    "contribution": 0.06747,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_recent_debuts",
     "h_recent_debuts"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]