SPOTTER.
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
Game View
first pitch 5:40 PM CDT

Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds

Fri 9/18 · 5:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: unknown
TOTAL · OVER 9.0 RUNS
A
A cards like this have won 54% over · market 47% · stake 1u
FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.0
C
C cards like this have won 51% over · market 53%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 12-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games45%
Light travel this week for the away team24%
The home starter strikes out 28.4% of batters, adjusted — a higher strikeout rate than averageagainst the over9%
Defense leans over — mostly the away team8%
2 recent call-ups for the home team6%
WHAT WE COULDN'T SEEpriced into our number — not evidence about this game
No umpire zone data — graded on league-typical assumptionsagainst the over8%
Market: Over 9.0 runs at +104 (pinnacle, quoted 8:15 AM CDT) · model expects ~9.8 runs · divergence 12 points — band A. A-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. A cards in this market have won 54.4% of 927 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +3.5 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 1u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.
FIRST 5Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · final grade comes about 70 minutes before first pitch.
TOTALFrozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · final grade comes about 70 minutes before first pitch.
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
none detected for this game
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. Umpire not yet confirmed. Lineups not posted at grade time.
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6125606270003139,
  "p_shipped": 0.525602610240306,
  "model_mu": 4.651807055728666,
  "market_p": 0.5322997416020672,
  "divergence": 0.08026088539824672,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Both teams above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3458,
    "contribution": 0.25943,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Game-time temperature 78\u00b0F",
    "share": 0.1843,
    "contribution": 0.13831,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1717,
    "contribution": -0.12879,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_rel_miss",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.1336,
    "contribution": 0.10022,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0941,
    "contribution": 0.07063,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_inn1_whiff"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0705,
    "contribution": -0.0529,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5983752663867921,
  "p_shipped": 0.48672714253765675,
  "model_mu": 9.822742185082486,
  "market_p": 0.4742268041237113,
  "divergence": 0.12414846226308074,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 9.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.4497,
    "contribution": 0.33839,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
    "share": 0.2391,
    "contribution": 0.17988,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_miles7d_k",
     "h_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter strikes out 28.4% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.0929,
    "contribution": -0.06993,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_prev_pitches"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.0789,
    "contribution": -0.05936,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_zone_miss",
     "ump_gate_miss",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0777,
    "contribution": 0.05849,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "2 recent call-ups for the home team",
    "share": 0.0617,
    "contribution": 0.04643,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]