Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5604358277807039,
"p_shipped": 0.510122391979122,
"model_mu": 4.957550919763896,
"market_p": 0.5167958656330749,
"divergence": 0.043639962147629,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "98\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.4159,
"contribution": 0.3403,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1574,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 476 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.1186,
"contribution": -0.09707,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1179,
"contribution": 0.0965,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.1095,
"contribution": 0.08961,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 5.5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.0806,
"contribution": 0.06592,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T21:00:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.6207709241914303,
"p_shipped": 0.5220884616707115,
"model_mu": 6.28915878034043,
"market_p": 0.5154639175257731,
"divergence": 0.10530700666565718,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T21:00:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "96\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.4579,
"contribution": 0.34098,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1715,
"contribution": 0.12771,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 476 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.1304,
"contribution": -0.09707,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.1204,
"contribution": 0.08961,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.1198,
"contribution": 0.08921,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4474570231343047,
"p_shipped": 0.48888945131046596,
"model_mu": 8.759352707685789,
"market_p": 0.5064267352185091,
"divergence": -0.05896971208420443,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 9.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T13:15:59Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2672,
"contribution": -0.13789,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "98\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.2368,
"contribution": 0.12217,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 5.5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.1825,
"contribution": 0.09417,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1375,
"contribution": -0.07094,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.115,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter up 1.1 mph in his last start",
"share": 0.061,
"contribution": -0.03147,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-04T21:00:59Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5049650169650108,
"p_shipped": 0.4969053245109698,
"model_mu": 10.29849762689222,
"market_p": 0.4961439588688946,
"divergence": 0.008821058096116219,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 9.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-04T21:00:59Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.2753,
"contribution": 0.15093,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2515,
"contribution": -0.13789,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "96\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.2162,
"contribution": 0.11855,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 5.5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.1717,
"contribution": 0.09417,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0853,
"contribution": -0.0468,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30"
]
}
]
}
]