Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox

Thu 9/10 · 6:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.0

C cards like this have won 51% over · market 50%

TOTAL

no lean

model 51% under · market 49%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 6-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Starting pitchers leans over — mostly the home team35%

Team strength & form leans over — mostly the away team26%

The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 gamesagainst the over18%

Park & environment leans over12%

Umpire leans underagainst the over0%

WHAT WE COULDN'T SEEpriced into our number — not evidence about this game

No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher — graded at league average9%

Market: First-5-innings Over 4.0 at -106 (pinnacle, quoted 5:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~4.7 runs · divergence 6 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 50.9% of 1,034 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -0.5 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

FIRST 5Frozen no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade C.

TOTALFrozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade no lean.

anchor First-5 Over 4.0 -106 → closed -111 · our way

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Catcher rest spotGetaway day (day game, then travel)Low-scoring umpireHigh-strikeout umpire

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-10T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
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  "p_shipped": 0.5268784092394403,
  "model_mu": 4.196988922209721,
  "market_p": 0.5271317829457364,
  "divergence": 0.042021489786942534,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-10T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2746,
    "contribution": 0.09032,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_opener",
     "h_sp_days_rest_miss",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2055,
    "contribution": 0.06759,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.2011,
    "contribution": 0.06616,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_cs30",
     "h_wp_pb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1839,
    "contribution": -0.06049,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.1338,
    "contribution": 0.04399,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire leans under",
    "share": 0.0011,
    "contribution": -0.00036,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-10T22:30:30Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5587773505990876,
  "p_shipped": 0.49864549773835043,
  "model_mu": 4.747053029212642,
  "market_p": 0.4987080103359174,
  "divergence": 0.060069340263170234,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-10T22:30:30Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.3509,
    "contribution": 0.09032,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_opener",
     "h_sp_days_rest_miss",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2626,
    "contribution": 0.06759,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1781,
    "contribution": -0.04584,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
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    "share": 0.1194,
    "contribution": 0.03074,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.0877,
    "contribution": 0.02257,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire leans under",
    "share": 0.0014,
    "contribution": -0.00036,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-10T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "feature_version": 5,
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  "p_shipped": 0.5021490058764211,
  "model_mu": 6.867764086920882,
  "market_p": 0.5167958656330749,
  "divergence": -0.054443156821285976,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-10T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3377,
    "contribution": -0.23237,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_bb30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2354,
    "contribution": 0.16197,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_debut",
     "h_sp_whiff"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
    "share": 0.1581,
    "contribution": -0.10877,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_unearned30",
     "a_err30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.155,
    "contribution": 0.10668,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The home team's bullpen rested the last three days",
    "share": 0.1137,
    "contribution": -0.07824,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-10T22:30:30Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4631203901886867,
  "p_shipped": 0.4885735092640644,
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  "market_p": 0.5064267352185091,
  "divergence": -0.04330634502982239,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-10T22:30:30Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3226,
    "contribution": -0.21704,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_bb30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2408,
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    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_debut",
     "h_sp_whiff"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
    "share": 0.1617,
    "contribution": -0.10877,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_unearned30",
     "a_err30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.1586,
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    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The home team's bullpen rested the last three days",
    "share": 0.1163,
    "contribution": -0.07824,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]