Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.48459784484219154,
"p_shipped": 0.4695911383312148,
"model_mu": 4.062829468304228,
"market_p": 0.48195876288659806,
"divergence": 0.002639081955593481,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2873,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2561,
"contribution": 0.11482,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 460 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.1888,
"contribution": -0.08462,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.1355,
"contribution": 0.06072,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0689,
"contribution": 0.03088,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"h_wp_pb30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0635,
"contribution": -0.02845,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T22:30:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5035133005355261,
"p_shipped": 0.47226165073681753,
"model_mu": 4.853563178666559,
"market_p": 0.47680412371134023,
"divergence": 0.026709176824185887,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T22:30:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.3046,
"contribution": 0.11482,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 460 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.2245,
"contribution": -0.08462,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.2222,
"contribution": -0.08376,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.2011,
"contribution": 0.0758,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.0404,
"contribution": 0.01524,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_backup_catcher",
"a_backup_catcher"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0073,
"contribution": 0.00275,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.38367207376812,
"p_shipped": 0.4856967367735951,
"model_mu": 7.264593831534907,
"market_p": 0.48205128205128206,
"divergence": -0.09837920828316205,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3472,
"contribution": -0.2588,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_bb30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2016,
"contribution": 0.15027,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1505,
"contribution": -0.11214,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter walks 11.4% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.1299,
"contribution": -0.09678,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the home team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0873,
"contribution": -0.06509,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_framing_miss",
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.0835,
"contribution": 0.06222,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T22:30:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4136236496695533,
"p_shipped": 0.4856910911758676,
"model_mu": 8.080439457584527,
"market_p": 0.4832904884318767,
"divergence": -0.06966683876232344,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T22:30:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3554,
"contribution": -0.23466,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_bb30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2276,
"contribution": 0.15027,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1699,
"contribution": -0.11214,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter walks 11.4% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.1466,
"contribution": -0.09678,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.1005,
"contribution": 0.06633,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp"
]
}
]
}
]