Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs

Sat 9/12 · 1:20 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · OVER 9.5 RUNS

A cards like this have won 54% over · market 50% · stake 1u

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 5.0

A cards like this have won 55% over · market 49% · stake 1u

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 13-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Walk-prone umpire zone27%

Day game24%

The away team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 — below league average. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the over20%

Defense leans under — mostly the away teamagainst the over16%

The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days13%

Market: Over 9.5 runs at -108 (pinnacle, quoted 12:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~11.8 runs · divergence 13 points — band A. A-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. A cards in this market have won 54.4% of 927 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +3.5 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 1u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

TOTALFrozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Over 5.0 -104 → closed -104 · unchanged

TOTALanchor Over 9.5 runs -108 → closed -108 · unchanged

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Heavily used bullpen

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6486656378841053,
  "p_shipped": 0.49631115902301287,
  "model_mu": 5.628898686072977,
  "market_p": 0.47680412371134023,
  "divergence": 0.17186151417276502,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~11 mph net",
    "share": 0.3115,
    "contribution": 0.21027,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "day_game",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over",
    "share": 0.2501,
    "contribution": 0.16885,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.1977,
    "contribution": 0.13343,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1399,
    "contribution": 0.09442,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1008,
    "contribution": 0.06805,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-12T17:00:36Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6261284945971215,
  "p_shipped": 0.5139801198975776,
  "model_mu": 6.503780258303475,
  "market_p": 0.4935400516795866,
  "divergence": 0.1325884429175349,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T17:00:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~9 mph net",
    "share": 0.2941,
    "contribution": 0.19322,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "day_game",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over",
    "share": 0.257,
    "contribution": 0.16885,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.2031,
    "contribution": 0.13343,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1437,
    "contribution": 0.09442,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.102,
    "contribution": 0.06701,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6592854806079892,
  "p_shipped": 0.5324259852448452,
  "model_mu": 10.050103674728206,
  "market_p": 0.5128865979381443,
  "divergence": 0.1463988826698449,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 9.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.2636,
    "contribution": 0.21073,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.2495,
    "contribution": 0.1994,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
    "share": 0.2028,
    "contribution": 0.16212,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1567,
    "contribution": -0.12526,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.1274,
    "contribution": 0.10182,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-12T17:00:36Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6360758104366193,
  "p_shipped": 0.5262734983587284,
  "model_mu": 11.768790309274676,
  "market_p": 0.502577319587629,
  "divergence": 0.13349849084899035,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 9.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T17:00:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.2663,
    "contribution": 0.21073,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.2417,
    "contribution": 0.19127,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
    "share": 0.2049,
    "contribution": 0.16212,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1583,
    "contribution": -0.12526,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.1287,
    "contribution": 0.10182,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]