Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5279478322221004,
"p_shipped": 0.48392131292402524,
"model_mu": 4.320705716454841,
"market_p": 0.49610389610389616,
"divergence": 0.03184393611820424,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over",
"share": 0.3724,
"contribution": 0.17334,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2767,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1611,
"contribution": 0.07498,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1148,
"contribution": 0.05344,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No prior major-league start on record for the away starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0705,
"contribution": -0.03283,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_sp_days_rest_miss",
"h_sp_tto_decay",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.0044,
"contribution": -0.00207,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T17:00:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5676063749163908,
"p_shipped": 0.5057153795788811,
"model_mu": 5.41647439203062,
"market_p": 0.5,
"divergence": 0.06760637491639077,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T17:00:30Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over",
"share": 0.4106,
"contribution": 0.17334,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.2654,
"contribution": 0.11205,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1772,
"contribution": 0.07481,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No prior major-league start on record for the away starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0778,
"contribution": -0.03283,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_sp_days_rest_miss",
"h_sp_tto_decay",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.0616,
"contribution": -0.026,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_backup_catcher",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.0074,
"contribution": -0.00311,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4697180227792439,
"p_shipped": 0.5064117098208164,
"model_mu": 7.715734871594578,
"market_p": 0.5116279069767442,
"divergence": -0.0419098841975003,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.2536,
"contribution": -0.20154,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_opener",
"a_sp_debut",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.2344,
"contribution": 0.18628,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: day game after a night game for the away team",
"share": 0.2022,
"contribution": -0.16071,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rest0",
"a_dan",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.1669,
"contribution": 0.1326,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_b2b",
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_pitches_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1429,
"contribution": -0.1136,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T17:00:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4963546504335753,
"p_shipped": 0.4738422808137004,
"model_mu": 9.354047601988986,
"market_p": 0.4910025706940874,
"divergence": 0.005352079739487869,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T17:00:30Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.2454,
"contribution": -0.20154,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_opener",
"a_sp_debut",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.2269,
"contribution": 0.18628,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: day game after a night game for the away team",
"share": 0.1957,
"contribution": -0.16071,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rest0",
"a_dan",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.1705,
"contribution": 0.14002,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.1615,
"contribution": 0.1326,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_b2b",
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_pitches_3d"
]
}
]
}
]