Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs

Thu 9/3 · 6:15 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.5

A cards like this have won 55% over · market 48% · stake 1u

TOTAL · OVER 8.5 RUNS

A cards like this have won 54% over · market 49% · stake 1u

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 20-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most — fewer called strikes48%

The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games20%

Game-time temperature 79°F18%

Team strength & form leans over — mostly the home team12%

The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches3%

Market: First-5-innings Over 4.5 at +102 (pinnacle, quoted 5:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~6.1 runs · divergence 20 points — band A. A-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. A cards in this market have won 54.6% of 414 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +3.7 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 1u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

TOTALFrozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade A. · both passes leaned this way.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Over 4.5 +102 → closed +108 · away

TOTALanchor Over 8.5 runs -103 → closed Over 8.0 runs -114 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Bullpen arms used two straight daysCatcher rest spotGetaway day (day game, then travel)High-scoring umpire

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.6841225275397285,
  "p_shipped": 0.4966566680412297,
  "model_mu": 5.300756511454003,
  "market_p": 0.4832041343669251,
  "divergence": 0.20091839317280336,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.463,
    "contribution": 0.36025,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_asof",
     "ump_k_dev_sd",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Game-time temperature 79\u00b0F",
    "share": 0.2021,
    "contribution": 0.15725,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1964,
    "contribution": 0.15284,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1128,
    "contribution": 0.08773,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.0257,
    "contribution": 0.01999,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30",
     "h_wp_pb30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-03T22:00:19Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.6785945102150371,
  "p_shipped": 0.49282183287201164,
  "model_mu": 6.115465093075069,
  "market_p": 0.4780361757105944,
  "divergence": 0.20055833450444271,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T22:00:19Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.4787,
    "contribution": 0.36025,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_asof",
     "ump_k_dev_sd",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2007,
    "contribution": 0.15102,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Game-time temperature 79\u00b0F",
    "share": 0.1775,
    "contribution": 0.1336,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1166,
    "contribution": 0.08773,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.0266,
    "contribution": 0.01999,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30",
     "h_wp_pb30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.630519182384835,
  "p_shipped": 0.5121269016781284,
  "model_mu": 8.76863342093848,
  "market_p": 0.5115681233933163,
  "divergence": 0.1189510589915187,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T13:15:19Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.3472,
    "contribution": 0.21282,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter down 1.2 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.2923,
    "contribution": 0.17917,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.165,
    "contribution": 0.10112,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_b2b",
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1069,
    "contribution": 0.06551,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
    "share": 0.0886,
    "contribution": -0.0543,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_err30",
     "a_err30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-03T22:00:19Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.6222762021093347,
  "p_shipped": 0.5005727562384203,
  "model_mu": 10.31306333495039,
  "market_p": 0.4922680412371133,
  "divergence": 0.13000816087222133,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-03T22:00:19Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.3445,
    "contribution": 0.21282,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter down 1.2 mph in his last start",
    "share": 0.29,
    "contribution": 0.17917,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.1637,
    "contribution": 0.10112,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_b2b",
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1139,
    "contribution": 0.07038,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
    "share": 0.0879,
    "contribution": -0.0543,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_err30",
     "a_err30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]