Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox

Wed 9/9 · 5:45 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · UNDER 9.0 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% under · market 47%

FIRST 5 INNINGS

no lean

model 51% over · market 51%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 7-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games37%

The away team allowing 3.6 runs a game, last 30 — below league average. Priced in, and it went too faragainst the under23%

Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than mostagainst the under17%

Backup catcher starting12%

Defense leans over — mostly the away teamagainst the under10%

Market: Under 9.0 runs at +105 (pinnacle, quoted 4:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~9.3 runs · divergence 7 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 52.2% of 2,317 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

Frozen no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade C.

anchor Under 9.0 runs +105 → closed +105 · unchanged

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Getaway day (day game, then travel)Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5217755437049063,
  "p_shipped": 0.5011902732901818,
  "model_mu": 4.871945408420034,
  "market_p": 0.5038759689922481,
  "divergence": 0.01789957471265824,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~7 mph net",
    "share": 0.3193,
    "contribution": 0.16994,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.25,
    "contribution": -0.13302,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2083,
    "contribution": 0.11083,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league",
    "share": 0.1197,
    "contribution": 0.06372,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1027,
    "contribution": -0.05467,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T21:30:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5158271435965758,
  "p_shipped": 0.5083854981813981,
  "model_mu": 5.48130064982543,
  "market_p": 0.5116279069767442,
  "divergence": 0.00419923661983157,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T21:30:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~8 mph net",
    "share": 0.3061,
    "contribution": 0.17064,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2374,
    "contribution": -0.13233,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1988,
    "contribution": 0.11083,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.1433,
    "contribution": -0.07989,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league",
    "share": 0.1143,
    "contribution": 0.06372,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4688153107842234,
  "p_shipped": 0.490639802029921,
  "model_mu": 8.63671969412906,
  "market_p": 0.47557840616966585,
  "divergence": -0.0067630953854424525,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 9.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3871,
    "contribution": -0.28325,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.2351,
    "contribution": 0.17204,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.1703,
    "contribution": 0.12459,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1044,
    "contribution": 0.07638,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "h_err30",
     "a_unearned30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.1031,
    "contribution": -0.07545,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T21:30:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4568437243444051,
  "p_shipped": 0.5132671506249312,
  "model_mu": 9.33468745300789,
  "market_p": 0.5256410256410255,
  "divergence": -0.06879730129662043,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 9.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T21:30:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3696,
    "contribution": -0.2718,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.2339,
    "contribution": 0.17204,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.1694,
    "contribution": 0.12459,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.1232,
    "contribution": -0.09061,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_framing_miss",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1039,
    "contribution": 0.07638,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "h_err30",
     "a_unearned30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]