Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox

Wed 9/2 · 3:10 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · UNDER 8.5 RUNS

A cards like this have won 54% under · market 52% · stake 1u

FIRST 5 INNINGS

no lean

model 50% under · market 51%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 13-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Bullpen leans under — mostly the home team23%

The home starter walks 9.7% of batters, adjusted — a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the under22%

Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than mostagainst the under20%

Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team — day game, then travel19%

The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games16%

Market: Under 8.5 runs at -114 (pinnacle, quoted 2:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~7.9 runs · divergence 13 points — band A. A-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. A cards in this market have won 54.4% of 927 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +3.5 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 1u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

Frozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

anchor Under 8.5 runs -114 → closed Under 8.0 runs +103 · our way

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Wind blowing inHeavily used bullpenCatcher rest spotDay game after a night gameGetaway day (day game, then travel)Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)High-scoring umpire

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
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  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "feature_version": 2,
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  "p_shipped": 0.4891651827575929,
  "model_mu": 3.668728276941585,
  "market_p": 0.4857881136950904,
  "divergence": -0.04508697432614189,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter mixed his pitches differently than usual last start",
    "share": 0.3337,
    "contribution": -0.19622,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~10 mph net",
    "share": 0.2621,
    "contribution": -0.15414,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "day_game",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.2526,
    "contribution": 0.14852,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_k_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0842,
    "contribution": 0.04953,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0674,
    "contribution": -0.03963,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
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  "band": null,
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  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
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  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter mixed his pitches differently than usual last start",
    "share": 0.3353,
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    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~10 mph net",
    "share": 0.2554,
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    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "day_game",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.2538,
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     "ump_width_asof",
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    ]
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   {
    "family": "strength",
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     "a_rs30",
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    ]
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   {
    "family": "offense",
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    "share": 0.0708,
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    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
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  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "feature_version": 2,
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  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
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  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2255,
    "contribution": -0.15667,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter walks 9.7% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.2211,
    "contribution": -0.15362,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.1983,
    "contribution": 0.13779,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.1904,
    "contribution": -0.13228,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1647,
    "contribution": -0.11441,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
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  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T19:00:56Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "feature_version": 2,
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  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T19:00:56Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2271,
    "contribution": -0.15667,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter walks 9.7% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.2227,
    "contribution": -0.15362,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
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    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.1917,
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    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
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     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1588,
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    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]