Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

Sat 9/5 · 6:05 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · OVER 7.5 RUNS

B cards like this have won 52% over · market 51% · stake 0.5u

FIRST 5 INNINGS

no lean

model 54% over · market 53%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 9-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days30%

The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games22%

The home starter strikes out 16% of batters, adjusted — a lower strikeout rate than average21%

The home team allowing 4 runs a game, last 30 — below league averageagainst the over14%

Heavy travel this week for the home team13%

Market: Over 7.5 runs at -111 (pinnacle, quoted 5:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~9.3 runs · divergence 9 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 52.2% of 1,393 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.2 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 0.5u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade no lean.

TOTALFrozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

anchor Over 7.5 runs -111 → closed -104 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

none detected for this game

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

SERIES_UNDER The last game in this series finished 7 runs under its closing total — 1 run against a total of 8. In 2021–25, the next game went under 54.6% of the time · personal rule, not graded · this card grades the OVER — the rule points the other way

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.550096463537268,
  "p_shipped": 0.4808980551668678,
  "model_mu": 4.631446866925598,
  "market_p": 0.4716494845360826,
  "divergence": 0.07844697900118547,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter strikes out 16% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.4378,
    "contribution": 0.17136,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_tto_decay",
     "a_sp_mix_drift"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2795,
    "contribution": 0.10939,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under",
    "share": 0.1287,
    "contribution": -0.05036,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.0836,
    "contribution": 0.03274,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.0703,
    "contribution": -0.02753,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T22:00:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5723688236342034,
  "p_shipped": 0.5365468486995691,
  "model_mu": 5.06820490925776,
  "market_p": 0.5257731958762887,
  "divergence": 0.046595627757914704,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T22:00:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter strikes out 16% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.3673,
    "contribution": 0.17136,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_tto_decay",
     "a_sp_mix_drift"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.264,
    "contribution": 0.12317,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.1343,
    "contribution": 0.06266,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.1264,
    "contribution": -0.05897,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "a_backup_catcher",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under",
    "share": 0.1079,
    "contribution": -0.05036,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6196088599462963,
  "p_shipped": 0.5010750084147981,
  "model_mu": 8.637809023299571,
  "market_p": 0.502577319587629,
  "divergence": 0.11703154035866736,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T13:15:59Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.3003,
    "contribution": 0.24107,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_b2b",
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2101,
    "contribution": 0.16864,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter strikes out 16% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.2093,
    "contribution": 0.16803,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
    "share": 0.1456,
    "contribution": -0.1169,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
    "share": 0.1348,
    "contribution": 0.10822,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "h_miles7d_k"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-05T22:00:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6057023700306102,
  "p_shipped": 0.5023006859467752,
  "model_mu": 9.347666803893915,
  "market_p": 0.5115681233933163,
  "divergence": 0.09413424663729397,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-05T22:00:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.2952,
    "contribution": 0.24107,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_b2b",
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2233,
    "contribution": 0.18233,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter strikes out 16% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.2058,
    "contribution": 0.16803,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
    "share": 0.1432,
    "contribution": -0.1169,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
    "share": 0.1325,
    "contribution": 0.10822,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "h_miles7d_k"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]