Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5285514965981006,
"p_shipped": 0.5198794071704851,
"model_mu": 4.544676666883212,
"market_p": 0.5219638242894057,
"divergence": 0.006587672308694947,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 81\u00b0F",
"share": 0.3676,
"contribution": 0.13575,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3222,
"contribution": -0.11899,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.117,
"contribution": 0.0432,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0927,
"contribution": -0.03424,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No prior major-league start on record for the away starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0738,
"contribution": 0.02727,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_sp_days_rest_miss",
"h_sp_velo_dev",
"a_sp_pitch_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Both teams allowing fewer runs than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0267,
"contribution": -0.00986,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T22:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4488986067473589,
"p_shipped": 0.4583101177638437,
"model_mu": 4.374485849275955,
"market_p": 0.47043701799485865,
"divergence": -0.021538411247499778,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T22:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter back from a 30+ day MLB gap \u2014 established arm",
"share": 0.3999,
"contribution": -0.21581,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_return_vet",
"a_sp_bf_per_start",
"h_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 81\u00b0F",
"share": 0.2633,
"contribution": 0.14209,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1933,
"contribution": -0.10433,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.0801,
"contribution": 0.0432,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0634,
"contribution": -0.03424,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.47230950047417153,
"p_shipped": 0.4837653161212854,
"model_mu": 8.37732864041816,
"market_p": 0.48071979434447304,
"divergence": -0.00841029387030151,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked extra innings yesterday",
"share": 0.2531,
"contribution": -0.09557,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_yday_extras",
"h_bp_b2b",
"h_bp_pitches_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2505,
"contribution": -0.09459,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 81\u00b0F",
"share": 0.1662,
"contribution": 0.06277,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"alt_kft",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No pitch-tracking data for the away starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1216,
"contribution": 0.04593,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_sp_pitch_miss",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1066,
"contribution": -0.04024,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.102,
"contribution": 0.03851,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_acc_asof",
"ump_width_asof"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T22:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.41426243799057616,
"p_shipped": 0.4746817724230101,
"model_mu": 8.151032408857738,
"market_p": 0.4832904884318767,
"divergence": -0.06902805044130056,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T22:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.4252,
"contribution": -0.20718,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_bf_per_start",
"a_sp_prev_pitches",
"a_sp_inn1_whiff"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked extra innings yesterday",
"share": 0.1961,
"contribution": -0.09557,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_yday_extras",
"h_bp_b2b",
"h_bp_pitches_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1626,
"contribution": -0.07926,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 81\u00b0F",
"share": 0.1335,
"contribution": 0.06506,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"alt_kft",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0826,
"contribution": -0.04024,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
}
]
}
]