Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4545541988469031,
"p_shipped": 0.47999342497428826,
"model_mu": 4.057482800159429,
"market_p": 0.4935400516795866,
"divergence": -0.038985852832683465,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "87\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.2672,
"contribution": 0.16248,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2538,
"contribution": -0.15432,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2118,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1045,
"contribution": 0.06353,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_inn1_whiff",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1002,
"contribution": -0.06094,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0626,
"contribution": -0.03807,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_wp_pb30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T22:04:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.45405788284425214,
"p_shipped": 0.4818232626763009,
"model_mu": 4.691669970308226,
"market_p": 0.5,
"divergence": -0.045942117155747864,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T22:04:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3047,
"contribution": -0.15709,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "86\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.2694,
"contribution": 0.13891,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1844,
"contribution": -0.09508,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_cat_framing_prior"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1232,
"contribution": 0.06353,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_inn1_whiff",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1182,
"contribution": -0.06094,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_elo"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4221878131111948,
"p_shipped": 0.47401097368040646,
"model_mu": 7.8353791893078,
"market_p": 0.4845360824742268,
"divergence": -0.062348269363032005,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2429,
"contribution": 0.14304,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2408,
"contribution": -0.14179,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_k30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.2352,
"contribution": -0.1385,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "87\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.1473,
"contribution": 0.08676,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter walks 10.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.1338,
"contribution": -0.07879,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_inn1_whiff"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-08T22:04:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.41924163966968564,
"p_shipped": 0.48281656632550674,
"model_mu": 8.67626723180041,
"market_p": 0.5115681233933163,
"divergence": -0.09232648372363061,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T22:04:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2487,
"contribution": 0.14304,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.2408,
"contribution": -0.1385,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2381,
"contribution": -0.13692,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_k30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter walks 10.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.137,
"contribution": -0.07879,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_inn1_whiff"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans under",
"share": 0.1354,
"contribution": -0.07789,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"h_err30",
"h_unearned30"
]
}
]
}
]