Seattle Mariners @ Athletics

Sun 9/13 · 3:05 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · UNDER 9.0 RUNS

A cards like this have won 54% under · market 51% · stake 1u

FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 5.0

C cards like this have won 51% under · market 51%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 15-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team — day game, then travel27%

The home starter walks 10.3% of batters, adjusted — a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the under27%

Bullpen leans under16%

Both teams allowing more runs than league average, last 30 games. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the under10%

Park & environment leans under8%

WHAT WE COULDN'T SEEpriced into our number — not evidence about this game

No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher — graded at league average12%

Market: Under 9.0 runs at -111 (pinnacle, quoted 2:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~8.4 runs · divergence 15 points — band A. A-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. A cards in this market have won 54.4% of 927 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +3.5 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 1u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.

TOTALFrozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Under 5.0 -112 → closed -112 · unchanged

TOTALanchor Under 9.0 runs -111 → closed -108 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Catcher rest spotSeptember call-up lineupDay game after a night gameGetaway day (day game, then travel)High-scoring umpire

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.44436368845983787,
  "p_shipped": 0.4952976906260756,
  "model_mu": 4.253588984765459,
  "market_p": 0.5090439276485788,
  "divergence": -0.06468023918874088,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 479 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.2505,
    "contribution": -0.0938,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_tto_decay",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2354,
    "contribution": 0.08815,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2144,
    "contribution": -0.08027,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.162,
    "contribution": -0.06068,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1376,
    "contribution": 0.05153,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T19:00:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.42643018777916025,
  "p_shipped": 0.4725303645773566,
  "model_mu": 4.825135204430158,
  "market_p": 0.4883720930232558,
  "divergence": -0.06194190524409554,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T19:00:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 479 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.2899,
    "contribution": -0.0938,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_tto_decay",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.2481,
    "contribution": -0.08027,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2154,
    "contribution": 0.06969,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.1875,
    "contribution": -0.06068,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.0592,
    "contribution": -0.01914,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.3511605439659585,
  "p_shipped": 0.4739288472220869,
  "model_mu": 7.902053909249806,
  "market_p": 0.4717948717948718,
  "divergence": -0.12063432782891326,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 9.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.3106,
    "contribution": -0.17685,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter walks 10.3% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.3103,
    "contribution": -0.17665,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under",
    "share": 0.1844,
    "contribution": -0.10501,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Both teams allowing more runs than league average, last 30 games. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.1167,
    "contribution": -0.06645,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans under",
    "share": 0.0779,
    "contribution": -0.04435,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "park_f5_asof",
     "day_game",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T19:00:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.33942820500196913,
  "p_shipped": 0.47653373257499415,
  "model_mu": 8.448807912678902,
  "market_p": 0.48843187660668386,
  "divergence": -0.14900367160471473,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 9.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T19:00:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.2684,
    "contribution": -0.17685,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter walks 10.3% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.268,
    "contribution": -0.17665,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under",
    "share": 0.1593,
    "contribution": -0.10501,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.1202,
    "contribution": -0.07924,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_framing_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Both teams allowing more runs than league average, last 30 games. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.1008,
    "contribution": -0.06645,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans under",
    "share": 0.0832,
    "contribution": -0.05484,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "park_f5_asof",
     "day_game",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]