Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics

Wed 9/9 · 2:05 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · OVER 9.5 RUNS

B cards like this have won 52% over · market 47% · stake 0.5u

FIRST 5 INNINGS

no lean

model 51% over · market 50%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 9-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Walk-prone umpire zone35%

Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team — day game, then travelagainst the over18%

The home team allowing 5.3 runs a game, last 30 — above league average16%

Both starters exit early — bullpen exposure14%

The home team's bullpen rested the last three daysagainst the over8%

WHAT WE COULDN'T SEEpriced into our number — not evidence about this game

No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher — graded at league averageagainst the over9%

Market: Over 9.5 runs at +105 (pinnacle, quoted 1:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~11.6 runs · divergence 9 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 52.2% of 1,393 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.2 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 0.5u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade B. · new at this pass — the morning pass had no lean.

anchor Over 9.5 runs +105 → closed +105 · unchanged

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Catcher rest spotDay game after a night gameGetaway day (day game, then travel)Deep into a road trip (game 7+)Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)Hot day (90°+)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5389967442522184,
  "p_shipped": 0.5325782070271398,
  "model_mu": 4.92646544012116,
  "market_p": 0.5271317829457364,
  "divergence": 0.01186496130648207,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.4955,
    "contribution": 0.15255,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "89\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.1871,
    "contribution": 0.0576,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1467,
    "contribution": 0.04518,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1248,
    "contribution": 0.03842,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0458,
    "contribution": -0.01411,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T18:00:27Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.526751193777192,
  "p_shipped": 0.508062075301035,
  "model_mu": 5.676912247798434,
  "market_p": 0.5038759689922481,
  "divergence": 0.02287522478494397,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T18:00:27Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.4663,
    "contribution": 0.15255,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "91\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.229,
    "contribution": 0.07493,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1475,
    "contribution": -0.04825,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_platoon_share",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1174,
    "contribution": 0.03842,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.0391,
    "contribution": 0.01279,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0006,
    "contribution": 0.0002,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_opener",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.588996162270481,
  "p_shipped": 0.522015024689517,
  "model_mu": 9.850727570326336,
  "market_p": 0.5219638242894057,
  "divergence": 0.06703233798107533,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 9.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T13:15:24Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.3832,
    "contribution": 0.33238,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.1985,
    "contribution": -0.17218,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1793,
    "contribution": 0.15555,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Both starters exit early \u2014 bullpen exposure",
    "share": 0.1519,
    "contribution": 0.13172,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_bf_per_start",
     "a_sp_bf_per_start",
     "a_sp_prev_pitches"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The home team's bullpen rested the last three days",
    "share": 0.0871,
    "contribution": -0.07554,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b",
     "h_bp_b2b"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T18:00:27Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.564557357553029,
  "p_shipped": 0.49350676271370386,
  "model_mu": 11.603958871844336,
  "market_p": 0.4743589743589744,
  "divergence": 0.09019838319405465,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 9.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T18:00:27Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.3491,
    "contribution": 0.33238,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.1809,
    "contribution": -0.17218,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1634,
    "contribution": 0.15555,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Both starters exit early \u2014 bullpen exposure",
    "share": 0.1383,
    "contribution": 0.13172,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_bf_per_start",
     "a_sp_bf_per_start",
     "a_sp_prev_pitches"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.089,
    "contribution": -0.0847,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_framing_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The home team's bullpen rested the last three days",
    "share": 0.0793,
    "contribution": -0.07554,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b",
     "h_bp_b2b"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]