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first pitch 8:40 PM CDT
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics

Wed 9/9 · 8:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 51% under · market 52%
TOTAL
no lean
model 50% under · market 48%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 2-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
The home starter likely goes only an inning or two — relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the under36%
88°F — heat carries the ballagainst the under32%
The home team allowing 5.6 runs a game, last 30 — above league averageagainst the under12%
Strike-throwing umpire zone12%
Offense profile leans under — mostly the away team8%
Market: First-5-innings Under 5.0 at -116 (pinnacle, quoted 7:30 PM CDT) · the full picture prices it -106 · model expects ~5.3 runs · divergence 2 points — band none.
Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade no lean.
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Deep into a road trip (game 7+)Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)High-strikeout umpire
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4644949227863734,
  "p_shipped": 0.5253013773869166,
  "model_mu": 4.610986934824047,
  "market_p": 0.518041237113402,
  "divergence": -0.05354631432702861,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.357,
    "contribution": -0.17678,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_opener",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "88\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.3201,
    "contribution": 0.1585,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1245,
    "contribution": 0.06162,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
    "share": 0.1204,
    "contribution": -0.0596,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.078,
    "contribution": -0.03864,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T00:30:36Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4635295351264356,
  "p_shipped": 0.48583112502262266,
  "model_mu": 5.344307043505603,
  "market_p": 0.48062015503875977,
  "divergence": -0.01709061991232419,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T00:30:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.3558,
    "contribution": -0.17678,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_opener",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "88\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.3168,
    "contribution": 0.15739,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.124,
    "contribution": 0.06162,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
    "share": 0.12,
    "contribution": -0.0596,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0833,
    "contribution": -0.04141,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4640713416544079,
  "p_shipped": 0.48463351711155206,
  "model_mu": 8.49921884492747,
  "market_p": 0.48843187660668386,
  "divergence": -0.02436053495227597,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 9.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-08T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.331,
    "contribution": 0.18613,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
    "share": 0.2702,
    "contribution": -0.1519,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1388,
    "contribution": 0.07805,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1348,
    "contribution": -0.07578,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans under",
    "share": 0.1252,
    "contribution": -0.0704,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "park_f5_asof",
     "temp_out",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-09T00:30:36Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4720172706797992,
  "p_shipped": 0.4957386217600706,
  "model_mu": 9.192823931885998,
  "market_p": 0.5192802056555269,
  "divergence": -0.0472629349757277,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 9.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-09T00:30:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.3305,
    "contribution": 0.18613,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
    "share": 0.2697,
    "contribution": -0.1519,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1386,
    "contribution": 0.07805,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1345,
    "contribution": -0.07578,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans under",
    "share": 0.1267,
    "contribution": -0.07134,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "park_f5_asof",
     "temp_out",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]